Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 15, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING HOT...DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH THEN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE KEPT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS
SERVED TO LIMIT INSOLATION WHICH WILL CURTAIL THE AMOUNT OF CAPE
AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DECENT
FORCING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DPVA
AS UPPER VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS
ADJACENT TO TN AND NE GA...WHERE THE MOST LOW LEVEL HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH....WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT MORE SCATTERED IN THE NC
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS WHERE THERE IS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS VORT MAX
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. EARLY SATURDAY WILL
LIKLEY BE DOMINATED BY LOW CLOUDINESS.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER VORT MAX TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FORECAST CAPES IN THE 1000-2000J RANGE. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE
USED POPS SIMILAR TO MOS THUNDER POPS IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT STILL A LITTLE SHY OVER
SEASONALL AVERAGES PER A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING IN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  WITH RIDGE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
AREA.  UNTIL SECOND TROUGH MOVES IN BY MID WEEK.  MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST DURING THIS PART OF FORECAST AS GFS REMAINS
PREFERRED MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION.  HEDING
MORE TOWARD GFS AS HPCS PREVIOUS PREFERENCE FOR ECMWF IS NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  TREND IS TO HEDGE A LITTLE IN THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON FINAL ALIGNMENT OF COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RATHER COMPLEX TAF PACKAGE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVER
TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS UPPER VORT MAX APPROACHES AND
RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE PRIOR TO CONVECTION. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
TUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY IN THE 21-24Z TIME RAGE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KHKY/KCLT WHO WILL REMAIN IN THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...EVEN
AT THOSE AIRPPORTS CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE CBS CODED. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT WITH A WINDOW OF VFR CONDTIONS. HOWEVER....LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT. WENT LIFR AT KAVL. STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14-15Z INTO LOW VFR CEILINGS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN STORE FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WED. SOME EALRY MORNING MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGSP WSR-88D REMAINS DOWN FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE FRI EVENING. PARTS
ARE ON ORDER. ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN TO SERVICE IS SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...VAD
LONG TERM...VAD/GAD
AVIATION...LG
EQUIPMENT...VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
347 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TODAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. AFTER A BREAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SCATTERED LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
432 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             BARNARDSVILLE           35.78N 82.45W
06/15/2007  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BARNARDSVILLE FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             WEAVERVILLE             35.70N 82.56W
06/15/2007  E0.88 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY EOC REPORTS HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN
            WEAVERVILLE WITH MAXIMUM SIZE ABOUT NICKEL SIZE.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             WEAVERVILLE             35.70N 82.56W
06/15/2007  E0.88 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

GAZ010-152130-
RABUN-
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF DILLARD...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN CITY BY 505 PM EDT.
  CLAYTON BY 520 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK/HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

SCZ001-004-152130-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
502 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF LONG
CREEK TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF WESTMINSTER...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL BY 530 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
06/15/2007  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL ALONG INTERSTATE 240
            IN ASHEVILLE.

&&

HG