Winter Weather in Georgia, February 17 to 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER WRN
TN AS OF 1930 UTC...WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT TO THE CLOUDS OVER
MIDDLE TN NOTED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER TOP OF BLOSSOMING RADAR
ECHOES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE
NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. A CATEGORICAL POP
ALONG THE TN BORDER LOOKS GREAT...TAPERING TO A CHC POP OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW/VALLEY RAIN AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT THIS QUICKLY
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW AROUND SUNSET. EXPECTED SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT.

EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE INTERESTING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. I HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT WAVE THAT A STRIPE OF PRECIP ABOUT 25-50
MILES WIDE FALLS TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE VORT CENTER...AND I
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS WHERE.
THINK THE GFS IS VERIFYING A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH REGARD TO
THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. GOING WITH
THAT...EXPECT THE I-40 CORRIDOR TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT. THE POP WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE LOW END OF THE CHC RANGE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE
A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AT LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED BY THE NEXT SHIFT.

ON SUNDAY...WITH THE WAVE LONG GONE...TRUE NW FLOW UPSLOPE PRECIP
WILL TAKE OVER. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE
BUMPED UP ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE MIGHT BE A LULL IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL TO ADD A FEW MORE INCHES ON THE TN BORDER...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN FOUR. FOR THAT REASON...THINK IT BEST TO REMOVE THE
ELEVATION DEPENDENCY RIGHT NOW. WINDS SHOULD HOWL FROM THE NW AS
WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS TO LATER SHIFTS
SINCE THEY WILL BE ROLLED INTO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
ANYWAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG EVEN E OF THE MTNS WHERE A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOW END OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

DESPITE LLVL RH BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...CONTINUED STOUT NW
FLOW WARRANTS SOLID SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING QUIET AND MILDER FCST FOR MONDAY AS UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
AND SFC RIDGING TRANSLATES EAST ACRS THE CWFA.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH 17/12 UTC OP RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT ENUF AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ON
TUESDAY...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BUT PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
CWFA...WILL BE HOW MOIST THE WAA FLOW IS OUT AHEAD OF APRCHG FRONT...
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE AND SLOWER NAM SOLUTION INCREASES LAYER RH ACRS WESTERN
NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WOULD SUPPORT
EXPANDING CHC POP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-85. RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS SOLUTIONS DOES NOT GIVE RISE TO A WHOLE LOT
OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEPICTION OF SENSIBLE WX FCST INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DOES NOT HELP EITHER. WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW...BUT IF LATER GFS RUNS
CONTINUE TO SPEED UP AND SHEAR OUT SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV...PCPN
CHANCES COULD LESSEN. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...NOT HANDLED TOO DIFFERENTLY BY BOTH THE 17/12 UTC GFS AND
17/00 UTC ECMWF...DEPICTS DEVELOPING TROFINESS IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE EAST. THIS CERTAINLY BODES WELL FOR
THE GOING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THESE TWO DAYS AND WILL BANK ON
ENOUGH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACRS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO KEEP OUR
FCST PCPN-FREE AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING WILL BRING LOW/MID
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP DOWN ONLY INTO THE LOW END OF VFR AT THE TAF
SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. KAVL IS ANOTHER STORY BECAUSE THEY HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE WAVE PASSES...SO AN
MVFR CEILING IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY THERE...ALTHOUGH EVEN KAVL
WILL BE KEPT JUST ABOVE THE MVFR RANGE. AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES
LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT HIGH BASED STRATOCU TO SCATTER OUT IN THE MORNING.
WE SHOULD MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLIPPER WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION. THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE BL. BASED ON TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MTNS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES...RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES.

BASED ON COORDINATION CALLS TO USFS IN GA AND GFC WE WILL ISSUE A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR NE GA. USFS IN SC AND SCFC INDICATE THAT FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING...WE WILL HEADLINE.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.

NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     NCZ033-048>052-058.

     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>064-
     501-503-505.

SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PM/CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

NCZ033-048>050-182130-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
427 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL ACCUMULATE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO 7 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY... LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING. WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO ARE ALSO EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL REPORTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NCZ051-052-058-182130-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
427 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 3500 FEET.

SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL ACCUMULATE 1 TO 4 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR
THE TENNESSEE LINE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WIND
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL REPORTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NCZ053-059-062>064-501-503-505-182130-
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
427 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST SUNDAY.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE SHARPLY LATE THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH OR SO
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE TWO
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED THREE INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS FROM HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL REPORTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-SCZ001>014-019-
182130-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
427 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE VERY LOW...AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY...ELEVATING FIRE
DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-182130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
427 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA IS IN EFFECT FROM
12 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. A DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25
TO 30 MPH. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF SUN LIGHT MAY CAUSE FUELS TO DRY OUT ENOUGH
FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.