Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, August 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPICAL SPLIT HIGH
CONFIGURATION WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEABREEZE. SEABREEZE FRONT NOW ALMOST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MOST COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXPECTED TO MAKE
GOOD PROGRESS INLAND WITH DEEP RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH STRONG LOW FROM 500 MB THROUGH 250 MB CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR BUT CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WITH
AREA SHIFTING WESTWARD QUICKLY...TEMPS WILL WARM DURING TIME OF
MAX CONVECTION BUT STILL SOME -7C POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN TIER...QUICKLY SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.

NAM12 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARP
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ENCROACH ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BY 09Z AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY 12Z. GFS HINTS
AT A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT IS FURTHER SOUTH AND NO WHERE NEAR AS
STRONG. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND JUST BRING AN AREA
OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
15Z SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20% TO 30% COVERAGE RANGE.

NAM BRINGS YET ANOTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS FOR MON MORNING WITH SUBTLE SIMILAR REPRESENTATION
ON THE GFS. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 595 UPPER HIGH OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO
ACT TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S LIKELY OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPS INCREASING
FURTHER BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND POPS AT 20% FOR THE AREA AT BEST.
DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA REVEAL HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY RETROGRADES WEST BUT LATEST
EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF TO THE HEAT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WITH MAINLY SEABREEZE
INTERACTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ENHANCED CU FIELD AROUND GNV SO HAVE INSERTED VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH POSSIBLE MVFR BR
AT GNV EARLY SUN MORNING. NAM IS AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON SUNDAY AS
INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
FOR GNV LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH RIDGE AXIS N OF THE AREA E TO SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS UPWARD OF NEAR 6 FT ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER SE MARINE AREA DUE TO BUILDING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  70  94 /  30  20  10  20
SSI  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  10  20
JAX  74  91  75  92 /  20  20  10  20
SGJ  76  89  77  89 /  10  30  20  20
GNV  70  93  71  93 /  20  30  10  20
OCF  71  92  73  93 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

DEESE/SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-191000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...IN COMBINATION WITH
HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/JTD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

GAZ163-182015-
CLINCH-
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL CLINCH
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOMERVILLE...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND DU PONT THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DEESE