Rip Current in Florida, May 22 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
557 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...
...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...
...LOW PROSPECTS FOR ATLANTIC/COASTAL SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK...

TODAY...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY (15 MPH INLAND TO 20 MPH
COAST) EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE
MID-LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AS ARE THE 30-40
PERCENT MAV POPS. NAM DEPICTION SEEMS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING BEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM
THE ATLANTIC MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MIN TEMPERATURES.

WED...RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
PROVIDE A BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.  RIDGING ALOFT
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE AND A SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER WITH HIGHER RH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO ONLY AROUND 4
THOUSAND FEET. WITH 20+ KNOT FLOW...WOULD EXPECT SOME ATLANTIC
CONVERGENCE LINES PRODUCING A VERY LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.  MOS
POPS ARE 5 PERCENT AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIGHER RH A LITTLE DEEPER
BEFORE HAVING MENTIONABLE POPS (20 PERCENT) IN THE FORECAST...SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A SMALL POP OVER THE WATERS AND A SILENT 10 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BLOCKED PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT
BE AT ITS STRONGEST.  THE MODEL SHOWS MORE MARINE SHOWERS...AS DOES
THE NAM/WRF.  THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL POP ACROSS MARINE AREAS
AND ALONG THE COAST.  WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...BUT FOR NOW WILL
ONLY CARRY A SMALL POP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF ON THU.

FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD PRESS SOUTHWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT TO HAVE A
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW...SO WILL CONTINUE A SMALL COASTAL POP.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH
AND REACH TO ABOUT 32-33N LATITUDE.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE
FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.  MID LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MARINE
SHOWERS.  WILL NOT MENTION POPS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH.

MEMORIAL DAY...THE GFS IS SHOWING TROUGHING ALOFT WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTHWARD.  WILL
NOT JUMP ON THIS TOO HARD YET...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
BETTER PROSPECT FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED HIGHER RAINFALL COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR MLB AND VRB. OTHERWISE...
WIND WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN WITH CROSSWINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
MCO.

&&

.MARINE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6
FT. WILL INITIALIZE THE FORECAST WITH A SCA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
WINDS MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN
SEAS...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE SCA AT LEAST INTO EARLY
WED MORNING.

WED-SAT...WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST NOT PROGGED
TO DECREASE BELOW 1030 MB UNTIL FRI...WE ARE IN FOR A TERRIBLE
PERIOD FOR BOATING.  HAVE CAPPED WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO 25
KNOTS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS FOR A PERIOD OR TWO
AT 30-35 KNOTS...MAINLY DURING THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
AFTER THAT THE GRADIENT SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN.

WAVE WATCH HAS SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FEET BY FRI...AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE WEEKEND.  SO IT LOOKS LIKE DANGEROUS
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  SINCE WE WILL BE
NEAR THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE MOON...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL NOT BE
HIGH...HOWEVER SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAV DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH AGAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE DRIER NAM-WRF STILL DOES NOT YIELD RHS BELOW
35 PERCENT. NEVERTHELESS HAVE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
ISSUED A RED FLAG FOR A PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

WED-SAT...MARINE MODERATION DUE TO GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT
LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  67  81  68 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  85  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  81  73  84  73 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  82  71  83  73 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 1 PM TO 6 PM TODAY FOR LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HIRSCH
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
531 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
222200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
531 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SWELL RESULTING FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A RIP CURRENT IS A NARROW CHANNEL OF WATER FLOWING SEAWARD FROM
THE SURF ZONE WHICH CAN CARRY EVEN STRONG SWIMMERS INTO DEEPER
WATER BEYOND THE SAND BAR. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM
PARALLEL TO SHORE UNTIL OUT OF THE PULL OF THE CURRENT...THEN
RETURN TO SHORE. DO NOT TRY TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST
THE CURRENT. EXHAUSTION AND PANIC CAN SET IN AND CAUSE DROWNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY
WINDS APPROACH 20 KNOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
CLOSER TO SHORE...SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT TODAY WEST
OF ORLANDO. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID SPREAD OF
ANY NEW OR EXISTING WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH BY
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE DROPPING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE SENSITIVITY WILL REMAINED HEIGHTENED DUE TO THE LACK OF
RAINFALL COUPLED WITH CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS...AND INCREASING
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.