Drought in Alabama, May 22 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IS STUCK BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND RATHER ACTIVE NORTHERN JET OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION ON THE 00Z RUN AND DO SHOW CONSISTENCY. SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER IDAHO THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY
LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS
CHAIN OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD AND RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RATHER BROAD WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL GET A RE-ENFORCING AIRMASS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DOMINATE CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

00Z RAOBS INDICATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 0.50 INCHES. THIS VALUE CLIMBS A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD
RANGING BETWEEN 0.70 AND 1.10 INCHES AT TIMES BUT MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 50 PERCENT. UNFORTUNATELY...
SEE NO NEED TO MENTION THAT LIQUID STUFF THAT FALLS FROM CLOUDS.

REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MAV MOS FOR HIGHS HAS BEEN REASONABLE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO HERE AND THERE. WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THAT TREND FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS MAY DIP A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SOME CLOUDS/LOWER
850MB TEMPS/SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES...BUT HIGHS STILL GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOCAL VARIABILITY BUT
WILL TREND TOWARD A BIT WARMER DUE TO INCREASED WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FROM TIME TO TIME.

75/LINHARES

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE DROUGHT WOES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE PERIOD. ACTUALLY WENT WITH THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE ENSEMBLE. WITH
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
CLIMBING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MOS.

SOME RAIN COULD BE ON THE WAY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON
DAYS 7 TO 8...BUT ON EVERY RUN...IT KEEPS DELAYING IT. ADDED 20
POP FOR NOW.

10

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS TCL AND ANB. WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TODAY ACROSS ALL SITES. THEY WILL AVERAGE NEAR 10
KNOTS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP MIXING WILL DROP THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
FARTHER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE 20
FOOT WINDS TO REACH 10 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BURNING MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AND IS
DISCOURAGED THIS AFTERNOON.

A FIRE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEREFORE THE
KBDI CRITERIA IS NOT USED FOR DETERMINATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
EVEN SO...KBDI VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 500 AT ALL CENTRAL
ALABAMA LOCATIONS.

75/LINHARES

&&

.CLIMATE...

NO APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR THE MONTH OF
MAY SO FAR...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS VARY WIDELY. IF NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS RECEIVED BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH...ALL CLIMATE
REPORTING STATIONS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD BE IN THE TOP 5 DRIEST
MAYS OF ALL TIME. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE AREA...AS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN CARRYING LARGE DEFICITS THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

75/LINHARES

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 5 PM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-231130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT...DRY
SOIL ...AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS
A RESULT VALID THROUGH 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.