Extreme Cold in Florida, February 19, 2007

Name: Extreme Cold in Florida, February 19, 2007
Start: 2007-02-19T04:00
End: 2007-02-19T08:00
Location: Florida

February 19, 2007 · NWS TBW · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

A gusty cold front passed through the area on Sunday February 18th. Cold high pressure quickly settled over the area Sunday night.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.

A gusty cold front passed through the area on Sunday February 18th. Cold high pressure quickly settled over the area Sunday night. Calm winds along the Suncoast allowed temperatures to reach freezing for three or more hours. A light northeast winds kept most areas along and south of Interstate 4 above freezing. However, inland low spots did record temperatures briefly in the upper 20s.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 3:31 AM EST, 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 3:31 AM EST, 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME WIND ACROSS MANY AREAS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO
GO CALM HAVE DROPPED OFF TO NEAR FREEZING...WITH 32 DEGREES IN THE
VILLAGES AND 29 DEGREES AT BROOKSVILLE. NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE WARNING
SO WILL LET THE FREEZE WARNING RIDE AS IS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY...SO
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SUNSHINE VERY ABUNDANT. IT WILL STILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SHOULD EASILY BREAK
60 EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE. FORT MYERS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO DONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS TO GET THERE...BUT FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF A COOL
NIGHT BASED ON VERY LOW DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS MOVES OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH THE
LOWER 70S NORTH...MID 70S CENTRAL AND UPPER 70S SOUTH. IN OTHER
WORDS...NEAR AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT SETTLES IN NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THIS
AREA TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE NATURE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND MAY EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A BAND OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY MID DAY THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WILL CARRY A SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH WEATHER FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH WARM DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE BACK OVER
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A
LONG WAVE TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SE STATES...AND WILL BRING
FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS HINTS
AT MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

FINALLY BY SUNDAY THE GFS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA AND STALLING
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS
TO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION ATTM IS ON THE LOW
END...AND THERES PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.

TO SUMMARIZE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY FAIR/DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
RESPOND...BUT FEEL HIGHEST SEAS ARE PROBABLY AROUND 5 FEET NOW...
EXCEPT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE THE LAST OF
THE HIGHER SEAS WILL DEPART LATER THIS MORNING. I SENT A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

ONCE THE EXERCISE CAUTION EXPIRES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT NO
HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...AND DEW POINTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 25 AND 30 FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE ALREADY UP AND WE EXPECT TO HAVE LONG DURATIONS
EVERYWHERE TODAY.

SOME MOISTURE RETURNS BY TUESDAY...BUT I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
WE SEE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND A
SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH MID DAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH MOISTURE THIS
FAR NORTH. LATER IN THE DAY...WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE GULF
COAST. WILL JUST PLAN ON 1 TO 3 HOURS OF LOW HUMIDITIES FOR NOW...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE RETURN CLOSELY.

WE SHOULDNT SEE ANY CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80...WE WILL SEE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  46  73  57 /   0   0   5  10
FMY  68  47  78  57 /   0   0   5  10
GIF  65  45  76  55 /   0   0   5  10
SRQ  63  44  72  57 /   0   0   5  10
BKV  64  34  73  50 /   0   0   5  10
SPG  62  51  70  59 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CITRUS-DE SOTO-
     HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
     POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PETRO

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 18, 5:16 AM EST, 22 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
516 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-181630-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
516 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECTED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOATERS MAY
WANT TO DELAY ACTIVITIES AROUND LOCAL LAKES UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG THE
PASCO COUNTY COASTLINE FOR WHICH AN ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATURE COAST. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VERY GOOD FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO FREEZING LEVELS
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR WHICH A FREEZING WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY MID MORNING. WEAR WARM CLOTHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY LATE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060-061-181630-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-
516 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECTED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOATERS MAY
WANT TO DELAY BOATING ACTIVITIES AROUND LOCAL LAKES UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING HIGH SURF
ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM PINELLAS THROUGH SARASOTA COUNTIES FOR
WHICH AN ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ACROSS EASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH...AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREAS FROM POLK TO
HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO FREEZING LEVELS
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR WHICH A FREEZING WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY MID MORNING. WEAR WARM CLOTHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY LATE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ062-065-181630-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
516 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECTED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOATERS MAY WANT TO
DELAY BOATING ACTIVITIES AROUND LOCAL LAKES UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG THE
COASTLINE INCLUDING CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES FOR WHICH AN ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO FREEZING LEVELS
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR WHICH A FREEZING WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY MID MORNING. WEAR WARM CLOTHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY LATE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 extreme cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Levy

When: February 19, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Levy forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet

The low temperature in Bronson reached 29 degrees for four hours. The low tempeature 12 miles southwest of Chiefland was 32.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Citrus

When: February 19, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Citrus forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer

The low temperature in 3 miles southeast of Inverness was 28 degrees.

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Sumter

When: February 19, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Sumter forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 28.705, -82.081 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The low temperature in The Villages was 32 degrees for four hours.

What these are

Extreme Cold/Wind Chill: Temperatures or wind chills at or below the local warning criteria, or cold that caused deaths.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Florida in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Florida, February 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 12856, 12857, 12858.