A line of thunderstorms developed along a developing warm front in the Florida Straits. Several thunderstorm cells tracked northeast across Duck Key and Long Key, producing very heavy rainfall and minor flooding.
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The episode as NWS KEY wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms developed along a developing warm front in the Florida Straits. Several thunderstorm cells tracked northeast across Duck Key and Long Key, producing very heavy rainfall and minor flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Key West, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 4:12 AM EST, 5 hours 28 minutes earlier.
FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 412 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... GOES-12 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A FEW SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GOES-12 IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES COVERING SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING AREAS OF RAIN COVERING MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. OVER OUR REGION...PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME SCATTERED AND MORE CONVECTIVE...WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY COUPLET SIGNATURES OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS (GM075) WHICH HAS PROMPTED TWO SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LYING ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. .FORECAST... .SHORT RANGE FORECAST... A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OUTER STRAITS LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION LATER TODAY. GIVEN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROMPT LIKELY POPS. WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL COOLING AT 500 MB (-11.5 C) COMBINED WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THESE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE TYPE STORMS. DESPITE A SHALLOW AND FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVEL LAYER...LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED CAPE WILL LEAN AWAY FROM SEVERE FOR NOW. REGARDLESS...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN A DECREASING TREND IN POPS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC PULLING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF BOTH LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .EXTENDED FORECAST(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) BOTH GFSLR AND ECMWF INDICATE A ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS BECOME IN PHASE. AS A RESULT...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO MIGRATE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WILL FINE TUNE POPS AND TEMPERATURES AS MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. && .MARINE... MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST WITH AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATER TODAY. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE KEPT FOR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. FURTHERMORE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTH BY MORNING...BEFORE VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... AIRMETS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS...ICING...AND TURBULENCE ARE IN EFFECT WITHIN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER WHEN PLANNING YOUR FLIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL VARY TODAY ALONG THE ROUTE MIAMI TO KEY WEST...AND AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS ON THE MAINLAND LEG OF THE ROUTE. OVER THE WATER AND AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE SHOWERS. && .PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS... KEY WEST 77 72 81 72 / 70 50 30 20 MARATHON 78 72 83 72 / 70 50 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && APA DFM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 600 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-131100- MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS- FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM- GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT- OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM- CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM- WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM- OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT- CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT- WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT- KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY- 600 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY... A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIGRATE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. FURTHERMORE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW WATERSPOUTS. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR MORE...AND A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR CHAOTIC AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WITH ANGRY AND CONFUSED SEAS. REMEMBER...IF YOU GET CAUGHT IN A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...YOU MAY NOT OBSERVE A POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE FOR THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECASTS...STATEMENTS OF POSSIBLE WARNINGS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIGHT HERE IN KEY WEST. FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE DEADLY CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. APA
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 730 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 FLZ076-077-121330- MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS- 730 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 ...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS GRADUALLY ARE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. BY 800 AM...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN MARATHON...KEY COLONY...AND DUCK KEY IN THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND LITTLE PALM ISLAND... THE MATECUMBE KEYS...AND ISLAMORADA IN THE UPPER KEYS. WIND GUSTS TO 35 OR 45 MILES AN HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. OUR RADAR HAS DETECTED ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS...AND A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ON OUR ELEVATED BRIDGES. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DFM/APA
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 905 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 FLZ076-077-121500- MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS- 905 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 ...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH 10 AM. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN BLINDING DOWNPOURS. MOTORISTS ALONG THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS...AND VISIBILITY DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN HEAVY RAIN. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED WHEN CROSSING ELEVATED BRIDGES. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DEVANAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Autamated Cooperative Weather Observing Station at Long Key State Park recorded 5.38 inches of rain at 0940 AM EST in two hours, with final storm total rainfall of 9.01 inches at 1317 PM EST. State Park Rangers reported 6 campsites were washed out with park road flooded.
The public reported parking lots flooded at Layton Post Office. A railroad tie used for landscaping was floating in the parking lot.
Retired Emergency Management Director reported 5.60 inches of rain at Duck Key.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 14022, 14023, 14025.