A cold front over north Florida moved south and stalled over central Florida.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
A cold front over north Florida moved south and stalled over central Florida.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:00 AM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 300 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...LITTLE CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. GREATEST ISSUE IS THE EXISTING DIFFERENCES IN WIND FIELDS BETWEEN NAM AND GFS WITH THE LATTER DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AREA BY THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING WIND SPEEDS. COORDINATION WITH TAE NWSFO YIELDED GRIDS WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FROM GFS AND SPEEDS ADJUSTED FROM A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS...BASICALLY CAPPING SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN PASCO AND SARASOTA COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE ENHANCED CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICALLY 80 PERCENT FOR THE MENTIONED AREA WITH WIDE SPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. LATEST GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE STATE AND EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WHICH SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RATHER QUICK TURNAROUND FROM THE RAINY PATTERN OF THE LAST 3 DAYS TO A DRIER TREND WITH POPS DECREASING TO AROUND 40 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...THEN SLOWLY WARMING UP THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)..DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER FL ON SATURDAY. POPS BELOW CLIMO LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THIS RIDGE AND DRIER AIRMASS. THEREAFTER...LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS COMPLICATED WITH GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTING UPPER TROF MOVING BACKING ACROSS FL FROM THE E AND NE...WITH AT LEAST A 40 POP EACH DAY. THIS DIFFERS FROM PREV RUNS WHICH SHOWED THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THRU MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES... FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE DIURNAL 40 POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THESE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN...STILL CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. && .AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLD IFR OR LIFR IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS...DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 76 89 77 / 80 40 50 20 FMY 89 76 90 76 / 70 30 40 20 GIF 89 75 90 76 / 70 40 50 20 SRQ 88 76 88 76 / 80 40 50 20 BKV 88 73 88 73 / 70 40 60 20 SPG 88 79 88 80 / 80 40 50 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && SHORT TERM/MARINE...AR LONG TERM/AVIATION...NP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 511 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-312115- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 511 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS... FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. MOTORISTS AND PEOPLE IN RECREATIONAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WHILE DRIVING UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW ENOUGH SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES. ALSO...AS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER IT MEANS THE STORM IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT FOR DEADLY LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND WAIT UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN AS CONDITIONS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AND NEAR SHORE WATERS COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THUNDERSTORMS FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BRINGING PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS...DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. ...FLOOD IMPACT... LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS... FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THEN ON THURSDAY AND BEYOND THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MAIN THREAT REMAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEADLY LIGHTNING...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. 22
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:31 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning hit a tree, traveled through the ground, and started a fire in the garage of a home. Smoke alarms woke to occupants of the home and they escaped without injury.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 53376.