Drought in Florida, August 1 to 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH ONE MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SECOND AREA OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WESTERN PARTS OF
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLLIER
COUNTY. JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT IS ADMITTEDLY HARD TO FIND WITH NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MID-UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
SOUTH FL IS STILL LOCATED IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z
MIAMI SOUNDING. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS ALSO STILL EVIDENT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FL PENINSULA.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THIS AREA COULD
EASILY MARCH EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA WHILE REMAINING
SOMEWHAT IN TACT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY REGION WIDE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BEYOND MIDNIGHT...ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT NAM/GFS BOTH AGREE THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND WEST COAST LOCATIONS ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...AND NEARBY SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS WHEN
COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WARM GULF WATERS.

.AVIATION...WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PWATS, TSRA WILL CONTINUE
OFF AND ON FOR THE KAPF TERMINAL UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY LATER, SO VCSH UNTIL LATE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER KPBI.

UPDATE: STRASSBERG
AVIATION: GR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AS
RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA...KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A
WESTERLY FLOW. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
AIDING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE
BAHAMAS IS SLOWLY EDGING NORTHWARD ACCORDING TO SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO TODAY
WHICH WOULD SLIGHTLY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
SW COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY
AS THE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES NORTHWARD AND EXTENDS ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL BACK THE FLOW TO A MORE
S OR SE DIRECTION ALONG WITH BRINGING IN SOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIR. MODEL PRECIP WATER VALUES GO DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS BELOW CLIMO. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL
BE LOWERED TO 30 PERCENT INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHEAST...AND 20
PERCENT SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN END OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO CLIP SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE NUDGE POPS BACK UP TO CHC CATEGORY
SE COAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
RETURNING INTERIOR AND SW COAST FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
BEHIND WAVE. ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY WITH
POPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES EAST COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES
ACTIVITY INLAND/SW COAST.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MID/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST AND TURNS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO N-NW. POPS WILL RETURN TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS FOR THE
EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING TO A VCSH CONDITIONS
FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SO WILL REMOVE THE VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST SITES FROM 02Z
ON. THE APF TAF SITE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH
THROUGH TONIGHT AT THE APF TAF SITE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WHEN A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD LOWER THE VIS
CONDITION DOWN TO MVFR CONDITION.

MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO AREA. LIGHT S-SE WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS DECREASE AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS WITH LOWEST RH VALUES IN 45 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  78  91 / 30 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  91 / 30 30 20 20
MIAMI            77  92  79  91 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES           76  91  77  92 / 40 50 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...59/RM
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011315-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE NIGHT WEST COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS WEST
COAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WEST
COAST. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER DUE TO STORM
MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
LESSEN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.