Drought in Delaware, July 24 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FORM OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MERGE WITH A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ATTM.
A BIT OF RAIN STILL LINGERS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS...BUT IT SHOULD BE HISTORY SHORTLY. MUCH OF THE IDEAS
BEHIND THE PREVIOUS FCST STILL HOLD...BUT GRIDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO UPDATE THE SKY COVER AND DEW POINT GRIDS (BOTH LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT). PATCHY FOG WORDING RETAINED FOR NOW IN AREAS
THAT HAD PLENTIFUL RAIN TODAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE AS THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIXING OF DRY
AIR FROM ALOFT SHOULD BALANCE OUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW/S ATTEMPT TO
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS FROM THE SOUTH. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY LOOK TOO DRY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION, BUT ANY
SHORT WAVE ALOFT COULD HELP POOL MOISTURE AND ALLOW ISOLATED
TSTMS. FOR THAT REASON, I CARRIED A 20 POP IN THE GRIDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT, AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, ANY TSTM THREAT
SHOULD LESSEN. BUT DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW, I KEPT IN SOME CLOUDS
AND WENT WITH A PC FCST.

WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD START TO ALLOW THE DEW POINTS
TO RETURN TO THE LOW OR MID 60S. ANY SHORT WAVE ALOFT COULD
TRIGGER AFTN TSTMS, SO CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE AFTN.

IN GENERAL, I BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP CLOSER TO SEASONABLE BASED
ON H8 TEMPS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS ANY MIXING SHOULD GET UP TO THE
H8 LEVEL. MAV MINS TUE NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE REGION. WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SINCE THE MODELS DO
NOT USUALLY TIME OR POSITION THE SHORT WAVES WELL IN THE LONGER
RANGE, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WHEN THERE IS
SURFACE HEATING, IE IN THE AFTN/EVENING. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
OPENS UP AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THEN A NEW
TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, THE UPPER TROUGH AGAIN BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EVEN
INTO NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 70S SOUTH, MAKING IT WARMER AND
SOMEWHAT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE DO NOT SEE ANY MAJOR REVISIONS NEEDED FOR THE 00Z TAFS. WITH THE
LACK OF RAIN NOW IN THE BOOKS FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINAL AREAS, WE DO
NOT BELEIVE THERE WILL BE ANY FOG TOWARD MORNING. REST OF DISCUSSION
BELOW:

THE GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALL THE TERMINALS AT LEAST IN THE MVFR
RANGE. I COULD STILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE LAST OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
EVENTUALLY END. I HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARD MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR ALL AREA WATERS EXCEPT TOWARD NYC AS
SEAS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS.

A COLD FRONT, APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WILL NEAR THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RNS/TFG
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...RNS
LONG TERM...VM
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK/TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-241745-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
944 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-452>455-241745-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
944 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-241745-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
944 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.