Hail in Colorado, June 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ATTM WITH
A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIF
COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR SHORT WAVE EJECTING
OFF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS SW ARIZONA ATTM. AT THE SFC...WEAK LEE LOW
CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF KLHX ALLOWING FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.

TODAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE ACROSS SW ARIZONA
MOVING TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 00Z SUN. MODELS HOWEVER
DIFFER IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH WRF/NAM SEEMINGLY A TAD
OVERDONE AS 00Z SAT DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT KABQ AND KSLC INDICATING
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AT H5 WITH KSLC INDICATING SLIGHTLY DEEPER
LAYER AOA H5. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH CONTINUED GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH AND
CURRENT DEW PTS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS...OWNING TO PROGGED CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH MORNING SUNSHINE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH BEST COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS THE SW MTS. WITH WARMING ALOFT
(+12C TO +16C) MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAP GENERALLY HOLDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH WITH WEAK LEE LOW SLIDING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THE CAP ERODING ENOUGH TO FIRE A FEW STORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DVD. MODELS INDICATING BULK SHEARS
BETWEEN 25-35KTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE PALMER DVD.

TONIGHT...WEAK WAVE IN THE SW FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLE KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING PAST
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS ALONG WITH THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

SUN AN UPR TROF WL BE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST...WITH SOME MSTR BEING
DRAWN UP OVR THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MON THE UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SWRN AZ. AHEAD OF THIS TROF...MSTR WL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP
OF SRN CO. THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN BREAKING OUT OVR THE
FORECAST AREA MON AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WL STICK WITH
ISOLD TO LOW SCT POPS. SUN AND MON H7 TEMPS OVR THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 13-17C...AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWER 90S OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MON NIGHT THE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND WE COULD SEE SOME
PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU MON NIGHT. THE TROF THEN CONTINUES
LIFTING NEWRD THRU CO ON TUE AND SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCT POPS ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ON TUE AND THE UPR TROF
PASSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THE GFS
SHOWS H7 TEMPS OF 6-8C ACRS THE AREA. WILL DROP MAX TEMPS A
LITTLE...BUT WL NOT GO AS COOL AS GUIDANCE AS I WOULD BE OUT OF
TOLERANCE WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. THE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA FOR
WED AND PCPN CHANCE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT
NORMAL. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEPS AN UPR LOW OVR WRN KS
THU AND FRI...WHICH IS NOT AT ALL LIKE THE 18Z RUN WHICH HAD A
STRONG UPR RIDGE SITTING OVR CO. WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
THU AND FRI FORECAST GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS BEING
IN THE PIKES PEAK AND COLORADO SPRINGS AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
610 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-101215-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
610 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO
LESS THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AROUND 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.