Wildfire in California, July 10 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE WAS DETECTED BY RADAR AND VERY FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOSTLY DISSIPATED NOW TO DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER LAKE
COUNTY. MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO MARINE. CANCELLED GALE AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS SINCE CONDITIONS HAVE QUICKLY MODERATED.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTH ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFF SHORE. STRATUS WILL ERODE DOWN
THE COAST TO ABOUT CAPE BLANCO OVER NIGHT BUT THE SOUTH WINDS BELOW
THE CAPE WILL KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS GOING THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR ALONG COAST IN MARINE LAYER PASS REEDSPORT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTH TO CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. VFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2007/

SHORT TERM...MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST HAS SQUELCHED WARM
TEMPERATURE HOPES AT BROOKINGS TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...WITH THE HIGH THUS FAR ONLY ABOUT 61F. FROM ABOUT GOLD BEACH
TO CAPE BLANCO...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...INDICATING THE FINE
LINE THAT THE MARINE LAYER CREATES. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO FILL INTO
MOST OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THERMAL TROUGH DRIFTS
NORTHEAST.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THUNDERHEADS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF MODOC COUNTY...AND ARE MOVING VERY LITTLE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND GFS40 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE TO ABOUT .60 AT 18Z TO ABOUT .85 BY 06Z THIS EVENING. SOME
CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE TRINITY ALPS...
CASCADES...AND WARNER MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT THESE AREAS TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED PULSE TO MULTI-CELL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN MAINLY
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE BY MID-EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. PWATS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INITIALLY...WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPANDING
EASTWARD TO NEAR MOUNT SHASTA THEREAFTER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INITIATE OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THEN DRIFT GENERALLY
NORTHWARD...THOUGH GFS40 INDICATES POTENTIAL EAST TO WEST MOVEMENT
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY BUILDS AND SUSTAINS INTO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

LONG TERM...INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THEN DECREASES. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH
WHETHER THE LOW OFFSHORE AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND MOISTURE HEADS
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWING...OR IF
PARENT LOW SLOWS AND UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ALLOWING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TO REBUILD ALONG WITH WESTERN RIDGE. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW...TRENDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUTZ

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ620-ORZ621-ORZ622-ORZ623-ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280-CAZ281-CAZ282-CAZ284-CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

LOVEGROVE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1222 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2007

CAZ080>085-ORZ024-026>031-101300-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY-
EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
315 AM PDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

EXTREME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEST OF THE CASCADES...READINGS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 IN THE ROGUE VALLEY TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES ALONG THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. EAST OF
THE CASCADES...READINGS WILL BE IN THE 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTAINING
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES IS POSSIBLE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD LEAD TO NEW
WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION.

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEST OF THE
CASCADES...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 105 IN THE ROGUE VALLEY TO
ABOVE 110 DEGREES ALONG THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY OF SISKIYOU
COUNTY. EAST OF THE CASCADES...READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ021>023-025-101300-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
1222 PM PDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXTREME HEAT THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS NEAR 100 ON TUESDAY WHILE THE COQUILLE VALLEY
WILL BE IN THE 90S. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GLASER