Wildfire in California, January 8, 2007

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 PM PST MON JAN 8 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WINDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH
GRADIENTS BRIEFLY SPIKING UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL LIKELY
PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WERE GOING TO ALLOW THE WARNINGS TO
EXPIRE, BUT WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.

REALLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. MAY EVEN REACH
90 IN A COUPLE SPOTS. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LVL
TEMPS TUESDAY, BUT WITH GRADIENTS STARTING TO TREND STRONGLY ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON A SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING COOLING TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER, TEMPS COULD SPIKE INTO THE LOWER 80S EVEN AT THE BEACHES
BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN SO I PRETTY MUCH LEFT HIGHS ALONE.

MUCH COOLER ALL AREAS WED AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. MAY EVEN GET
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL LEAVE SKIES CLEAR
FOR NOW.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PROGNOSIS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
COMING IN THU. MODELS STILL SHOW IT TAKING MOSTLY AN INLAND
TRAJECTORY WITH MOISTURE EXTREMELY LIMITED. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS THOUGH I THINK A LOT OF THE AREA WILL NOT
GET ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF OUR CWA, NEAR THE KERN COUNTY LINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS NEXT STORM WILL BE TO
BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA. PRECIP IS LIMITED, BUT WHAT DOES FALL WILL FALL
AS SNOW DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2000 FT. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT
INTERSTATE 5 THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE QUITE
COOL, MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN, FIRST FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD
FRONT, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVELS AND DEPENDING ON HUMIDITIES
WE MAY BE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG WARNINGS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TWO MORE SYSTEMS FOLLOWING THE SAME SORT OF
PATH NEXT WEEK, THE FIRST ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURS. HARD TO
PUT TOO MUCH FAITH IN THE SPECIFICS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT WELL
BE STUCK IN THIS DRY PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE
WINDS IN SOME PLACES. EASTERLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KOXR
THROUGH TONIGHT...STAYING GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. KVNY COULD STAY
GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL BE NORTHERLY ABOUT 15 KT EITHER
WAY. LLWS WILL BE A CONTINUED CONCERN AT KVNY AND KBUR THROUGH ABOUT
08Z...WHEN WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

KLAX WILL BE VFR WITH A WEAK NW SEABREEZE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. LLWS
SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. NO STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...KITTELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST MON JAN 8 2007

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-091400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
330 PM PST MON JAN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BELOW AND
THROUGH PASSES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES BUT
LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL STILL BE LIKELY THROUGH FAVORED
MOUNTAIN PASSES.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVIAL BELOW AND THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION ON TUESDAY AND RED FLAG WARNIGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GOMBERG