Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, July 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON RADAR IS LIT UP AGAIN AS MOISTURE AND HEATING INTERACTS
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST TEXAS IS GETTING A REPREIVE FROM THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON...INSTEAD SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS GETTING THERE SHOT
AT THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM. BY
THURSDAY...THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AMPLIFY...AND THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN STATES SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOW CHANCES
LINGER...AS POPS DROP OFF TO THE 20 CENT RULE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...CONTINUE AT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 10/18Z. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS VCNTY OF CONVECTION...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. ALSO..EXPECT EARLY MORNING REDUCTION IN CIGS
AND VSBYS FROM DEEP EAST TX ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL LA AND INTO SOUTHWEST
AR  WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 STATUTE MILES AND CIGS NEAR
8 HUNDRED FEET...MAINLY BETWEEN 10/09Z AND 10/14Z.  SURFACE WINDS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE 4 TO 8
KNOT RANGE AFTER 10/01Z. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  20  30  30  40
MLU  75  89  75  90 /  30  40  30  40
DEQ  73  89  73  90 /  20  40  30  40
TXK  74  90  74  91 /  20  30  30  40
ELD  74  89  74  89 /  30  40  30  40
TYR  75  92  75  93 /  20  20  30  40
GGG  75  91  75  93 /  20  20  30  40
LFK  75  93  75  92 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS...AND MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AS
THESE STORMS WILL EXHIBIT MORE MOVEMENT THAN STORMS THAT CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LAST WEEK ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ADDED DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ENHANCE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME SEVERE...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND AS DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THESE
AREAS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.

11