Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, July 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE LVLS HAVE CONTD TO INCRS ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH
ALL BUT N-CNTRL AR SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ATTM. AN AREA
OF MID LVL CLOUDS HAS ALSO FORMED OVER SWRN AR/NRN LA THE PAST FEW
HRS AHEAD OF UPPER LVL SYS TO OUR W.

THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX CONDS ACRS THE
REGION STARTING TODAY AND CONTG THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM
IS VERIFYING BETTER THIS MRNG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVR THE PLAINS
AND WL LEAN MORE TOWARDS IT/S SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST.

LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE WL CONT TO ADVECT NWD ACRS AR TODAY AHEAD
OF UPR TROF AXIS. EXPECT SCTD SHRA/TSRA TO FORM AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. CONTD WITH SCTD POPS MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH LIKELY POPS
IN THE SERN ZNS. OVERALL COVERAGE WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYS. EXPECT A COMPLEX
OF STORMS TO REFORM OVR THE PLAINS LATER TNGT...BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD RMN W OF AR.

DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS AFTER TONIGHT REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT CDFNT HEADING TOWARDS AR. THE NAM NOW TAKES THE
BNDRY THRU MUCH OF AR BY LATE WED...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
HANGS THE FNT UP OVR NRN AR. THE PROGGED UPR FLOW PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...BUT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS JULY
AND THE TIME OF YEAR WOULD FAVOR THE GFS.

WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS ACRS THE FA STARTING TUE NIGHT AND INTO
WED WITH FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO BE WORKING INTO AR. LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURG THIS PD AND WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY BY LATER SHIFTS. LEFT  CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA IN FOR
THE REST OF THE PD /MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING/ WITH BNDRY
LINGERING ACRS THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH AMERICA WHILE HUGE CYCLONE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CANADA...
HELPING TO ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG NORTHERLY
FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. SHORT WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST IN THAT FAST FLOW TOWARD THE STATE.
THE SURFACE WILL SEE OUR FORECAST AREA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF LOWS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY THE TAIL END OF
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING US TO VARYING DEGREES...MAKING TIMING AND
THE DETAILS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. QUITE OFTEN...FRONTS WILL STALL
IN OUR VICINITY...SO RATHER THAN TRYING TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE
FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARMING BIAS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY OUT
IN TIME.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
755 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
755 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
ALSO...CONSIDERABLE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF THREATENING CLOUDS ARE SIGHTED APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY BECAUSE OF
THE DANGER FROM LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND FLOODING COULD RESULT
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

29

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
639 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ARZ053-091220-
CLARK-
639 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLARK COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 635 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GUM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...ONE HALF INCH
DIAMETER OR LESS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ARKADELPHIA AND CADDO VALLEY.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

44