Dust Devil in Arizona, July 4, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST WED JUL 04 2007

CORRECTED TRANSMISSION TIME

.SYNOPSIS...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE MOVING
WEST FROM NEW MEXICO WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING WESTWARD DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NM LAST NIGHT HAVE SENT A SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BORDER AND INTO EXTREME
EASTERN AZ THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS MAY GENERATE SOME
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NRN AZ TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS AZ AND SHOULD HELP TO IMPORT
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT POP GRIDS ALREADY SHOW THIS TREND AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THRU MIDWEEK...HIGH SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER
TRAJECTORIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE... ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BASES
AROUND 15-20 KFT MSL AND VRB WND G35KT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NM/AZ
BORDER UNTIL AROUND 03Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND
A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 15 KFT MSL UNTIL 02Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR -TSRA WILL SPREAD AS FAR WESTWARD AS KFLG AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DB/DJO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 AM MST WED JUL 4 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-050700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
800 AM MST WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RECORD
HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.