The combination of a cut off low off the coast of Baja and a cold front from the northwest brought heavy rain to northern Arizona. The cut off low fed abundant subtropical moisture over Arizona and the cold front brought substantial lift to this moisture.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
The combination of a cut off low off the coast of Baja and a cold front from the northwest brought heavy rain to northern Arizona. The cut off low fed abundant subtropical moisture over Arizona and the cold front brought substantial lift to this moisture. The result was nearly continuous precipitation for 36 hours in some locations along the Mogollon Rim and northern Arizona.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 8:55 PM MST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 855 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND VERY MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT THEN LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && THE CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE BAJA COAST FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED ON SHORE THIS EVENING AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS HAS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA WITH RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR...OF AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AZ. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS MOVING OVER THE YUMA AREA AT THE MOMENT. THERE IS STILL VERY UNSTABLE AIR SOUTHWEST OF YUMA WHERE MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AS A STRONG AND COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WE EXPECT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY DAY BREAK SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA WE EXPECT THE WIND TO INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP. WE HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION /335 PM MST/...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ AS EXPECTED...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3-4 INCHES STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS LURKING JUST NORTHWEST OF AZ...AND WILL START TO SEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. AS A RESULT...A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY. FINALLY A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST AZ...THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOME OF THE POPULATED REGIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF...BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD INTO THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THOUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 15Z SAT FROM KFLG EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM 8000 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO 5500 FEET ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FROM 9000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING TO 7500 FEET ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WDLY SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 SM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AZZ004-006>008-015>018-037-038 FROM 6 PM MST TODAY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR AZZ010>017-039-040 FROM 500 AM MST THROUGH 500 PM MST SATURDAY. SNOW ADVISORY FOR AZZ004-006 FROM 1200 AM MST THROUGH 500 PM MST SATURDAY. && ONTON/41
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 350 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-010700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 350 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM 6 PM MST TONIGHT THROUGH 12 PM MST SATURDAY. SEE PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND GRAND CANYON COUNTRY VALID FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA VALID 5 AM UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SEE PRODUCT PHXNPWFGZ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY TO AROUND 6000 FEET IN THE NORTH AND 7000 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BELOW ELEVATIONS OF 7000-7500 FEET BUT SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain fell over Apache county during the day. Some rainfall totals include: Pine Hill (RAWS) 0.80, Window Rock Airport 0.65, St Johns Airport 0.40, Alpine. 1.80, and Greer 0.90.
Heavy rain fell over Coconino County through the day. Some rainfall totals include: Flagstaff Airport: 1.38, Dry Park RAWS: 0.90, Grand Canyon Airport 1.00, Mormon Lake RAWS 2.54, Promontory RAWS 2.52.
Heavy rain fell over northern Gila County through the day. Some observations include: Payson RAWS 1.95 and Promontory RAWS 2.52.
Heavy rain fell across Navajo County through the day. Snowflake, in the rain shadow of the Mogollon Rim received 0.48.
Heavy rain fell across Yavapai County through the day. Some rainfall amounts include: Prescott Airport 0.65, Cherry RAWS 1.58, Crown King RAWS 3.78, Sunset Point RAWS 2.25, and Humbug Creek RAWS 1.47. One home flooded in Crown King and a motor home was washed down Agua Fria River after the driver tried to cross the swollen river. Oak Creek flooded an RV park in Page Springs and trapped a woman in her RV. Verde Valley Fire Department safely preformed a swift water rescue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, December 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 72973, 72974, 72975, 72977, 72979.