A funnel cloud was reported north of Winslow.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A funnel cloud was reported north of Winslow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 2:50 PM MST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 250 PM MST THU AUG 16 2007 .SYNOPSIS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE BEEN DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ...STORMS HAVE TENDED TO MOVE WESTWARD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER APACHE COUNTY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY..AS WELL AS VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM IN EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NORTHWEST GILA COUNTY LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SHAPING UP TO HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO VALLEY CONVECTION...WHILE STORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL FEED ON THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL VALLEYS. FOR FRIDAY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CA EXISTS AS THE CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA AND THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST HIGH COMBINE TO PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE CAN TRANSPORT WITH A DRY TROUGH LINGERING OFF THE CA COAST. BY SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS GENERAL IDEA...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND MOISTURE LINGERING JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES TO KEEP THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...OR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && ONTON/JJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST THU AUG 16 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-170700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 1000 AM MST THU AUG 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD...SPREADING TO THE VALLEY AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TAKING PLACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRYING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIRSTREAM WILL PUSH SO AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:59 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A funnel cloud or possible tornado was reported in the area northwest to north of Winslow from 400 PM MST to 425 PM MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 58405.