Heavy rain caused a rock slide southeast of Bagdad.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused a rock slide southeast of Bagdad.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 3:00 PM MST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 300 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOCUSED CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL HYDRO PRODUCTS ISSUED. ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OTHER AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES STILL WELL OVER CLIMO AT AROUND 120%...STORMS HAVE BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. AS EXPECTED...STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM ONTO THE COCONINO PLATEAU SOUTHWARD INTO THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER ACTIVITY FROM THE WHITES INTO THE LCR AND EASTERN RIM. STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY OUT EAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM WESTERN NM THIS EVENING. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND STEERING FLOW WEAKENS A BIT MORE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES...THUS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. GFS MODEL STILL SUGGESTS INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND TO A POSITION OVER BAJA BY SUNDAY. AS A TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST...THIS FEATURE THEN IS PUSHED ACROSS THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING A ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TO THE STATE...BUT WOULD ALSO SWEEP SOME OF THE QUASI-PERMANENT DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WEVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS EASTWARD. STILL EARLY TO PUT MUCH DETAILS INTO THE GRIDS...BUT GENERAL TREND OF DECREASING POPS IN WESTERN SECTIONS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE TRANSITION AS MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THESE FEATURES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS 4-7 KFT AGL. STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THU AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && STAUDENMAIER/BOHLIN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST WED AUG 1 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-020700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 1000 AM MST WED AUG 1 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REDUCE MORNING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WHICH WILL REDUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY HAVE SATURATED SOILS...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED AREAS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. STAUDENMAIER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from a thunderstorm caused a rock slide that closed State Route 95 at Mile Post 4 southeast of Bagdad.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 55117.