High Wind in Alaska, October 21, 2007

Name: High Wind in Alaska, October 21, 2007
Start: 2007-10-21T03:45
End: 2007-10-21T21:00
Location: Alaska

October 21, 2007 · NWS AJK · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

The first storm force Low approaching SE Alaska took a right turn and missed the area on 10/20. On 10/21 at 0300 AKST a second storm force low had developed to 974 MB just off the Queen Charlotte Islands. This storm center gradually weakened as it moved northward along the Gulf Coast filling to 986 MB just off Cape Spencer Sunday afternoon 10/21. The storm rapidly dissipated over the Central Gulf on Sunday night.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 21, 12:30 AM AKST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 12:30 AM AKST, 3 hours 15 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR BUOY 46184 WILL CONTINUE
NNE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NE ACROSS
THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. THE LOW TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY E FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO...IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SECOND WRAP FEATURE MOVING ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AREA. THIS MEANS THE MOST WIND
SHOULD BE NEAR THIS SECOND WRAP FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE
STRONG WINDS WITH IT FURTHER INLAND AS WELL. THINK THE MORE ERN
LOW TRACK WILL KEEP ANY STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE PAYA AREA...SO
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE. ADDED PAJN/PAOH/PAGN ZONES
TO WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO ADDED
PAHY ZONE TO WARNING AREA FOR TODAY. LEFT OTHER ZONES IN WIND
ADVYS...EXCEPT CANCELLED THE PAGY/PAHN WIND ADVYS WITH THE MORE
ERN LOW TRACK LIKELY KEEPING ANY ADVY LEVEL WINDS JUST S OF THEM.
FOR SIMPLICITY...DID NOT LEAVE ANY ADVY HEADLINES GOING BEFORE
WARNINGS START UP FOR THE PAJN/PAOH/PAGN AREAS...ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED ADVY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING IN THOSE
AREAS.

FOR MARINE AREAS...BOOSTED WINDS TO HURCN FORCE FOR PKZ042 AND
310...WHERE WINDS WITH SECOND WRAP WILL BE STRONGEST. MANY INNER
CHANNELS WERE LEFT WITH OR INCREASED TO GALES...EXCEPT LOWERED
WINDS TO SCA LEVELS TODAY OVER NRN INNER CHANNELS. WITH THE
DIRECTION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALIGNED WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...A DYNAMIC FETCH SCENARIO IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL GIVE
MUCH HIGHER SEAS IN THE HURCN AND ADJACENT STORM WIND AREAS. SEAS
OVER 30 FT ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS EVENING OVER THE PAJN AREA. PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM SW TO NE. DID MENTION MIXED
PRECIP FOR THE FAR NRN INNER AREAS WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING
ATTM...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG RANGE...THE LANDFALL OF THE LOW NEAR CAPE SPENCER...AS
DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE...WILL SEND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NE AND PROVIDE PRES FALLS CENTERED ABOUT 150 NM E OF
WHITEHORSE Y.T.   THIS LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY ENE AWAY FROM OUR
FCST DOMAIN.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE LANDFALL OF THE LOW WILL HAVE
LIMITED SPREAD SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE...BUT IS ENOUGH TO
HAVE SNOW MIXED IN ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THIS WEEK FOR HAINES...SKAGWAY
...AND YAKUTAT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF PRINCE RUPERT MON...
BUT A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE FROM THE N PAC WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION.  A MUCH STRONGER WV ON THE COLD FRONT WILL DVLP
A SFC LOW DEEPENING TO ABOUT 994 MB AS IT TRACKS NE ACROSS
DIXON ENTRANCE TOWARD STEWART 18Z TUE.  THE GFS 40 KM RUN FROM 210000Z
IS USED FOR THE GRIDS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE DVLPG WAVE IS
NOT GOOD.  ONE MODEL...THE UKMET CAME UP WITH A STRING OF 12 LOWS
ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SECTION OF POLAR FRONT ZONE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WAS USED FOR A DETERMINISTIC PRESSURE FIELD...A MORE
STATISTICAL SOLUTION WAS USED FOR THE POP FIELD...RESULTING IN
HIGHER POPS THAN WOULD BE USED WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DETERMINISTIC SOLN.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...ZONES 21>25..27 ...
  WIND ADVY...ZONES 20..26..28..29
MARINE...HURCN...PKZ042-310 ...STORM...PKZ022-036-041-043
...GALE...PKZ012-013-021-031>035-051 ...SCA...PKZ011-052-053

RWT JT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 21, 3:21 AM AKST, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
921 AM ADT SUN OCT 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.32N 131.61W
10/21/2007  M51 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            WIND AT 853 AM 15021G37MPH

0907 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANNETTE                 55.04N 131.59W
10/21/2007  M38 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            WINDS AT 853 AM 12024G37MPH

0907 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.82W
10/21/2007  M43 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            WINDS AT 853 AM 13029G43MPH

0907 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 30 SE PORT ALEXANDER    55.95N 134.08W
10/21/2007  M64 MPH          PKZ041             AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WINDS AT 9 AM 09049G64MPH

0907 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 E COFFMAN COVE       56.01N 132.45W
10/21/2007  M52 MPH                             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            WINDS AT 9 AM 15040G52MPH

0907 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
10/21/2007  M35 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            WINDS AT 853 AM 10013G25MPH

&&

KAV

Event by event

4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area

When: October 21, 3:45 AM AKST to 9:00 PM AKST
Where: Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area forecast zone
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Unknown

NCEP surface analyses on 10/21 showed extreme surface pressure gradients associated with the second Low as it moved off Cape Spencer. These indicated wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH, but no land observations were able to confirm this. Cape Decision (CDEA2, a marine observation) observed a peak wind of 64 KT at 1000 AKST 10/21.

High Wind, Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area

When: October 21, 6:00 AM AKST to 9:00 PM AKST
Where: Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area forecast zone
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Unknown

High Wind, Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area

When: October 21, 9:00 AM AKST to 6:00 PM AKST
Where: Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area forecast zone
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter

NCEP surface analyses on 10/21 showed extreme surface pressure gradients associated with the second Low as it moved off Cape Spencer. These indicated wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH. A trained spotter near Sitka reported at 1700 AKST on 10/21: Wind continues from the South. Gusting 50+. Pressure slowly rising. Heavy white camps and blowing spray. Water spouts observed in Eastern Channel 2 miles from Sitka at 1612 (AKST).

High Wind, Eastern Chichagof Island

When: October 21, 12:00 PM AKST to 9:00 PM AKST
Where: Eastern Chichagof Island forecast zone
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Unknown

NCEP surface analyses on 10/21 showed extreme surface pressure gradients associated with the second Low as it moved off Cape Spencer. These indicated wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH, but no land observations were available to confirm this. Sisters Island (marine observation) showed a peak wind of 55 KT at 1700 AKST on 10/21.

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, October 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 60010, 60005, 60006, 60007.