High Wind in Alaska, November 25, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
535 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH MOIST
SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHING FROM THE SEA OF JAPAN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
NUMEROUS SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE JET AND PEALING OFF NORTH
INTO OUR FORECAST DOMAIN. THE LOW OF THE DAY IS A STRONG GALE FORCE
960 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL REACH MATURITY
THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE FORCE LOW THAT ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY NEAR KODIAK CITY AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. RAIN
AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST ALSO DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.
INTERIOR AREAS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KODIAK NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTON SOUND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AGAIN...MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER
REGARDING THE REMNANTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LOW. UKMET GFS AND
ECMWF ALL TAKE THE WEAKENING LOW EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL
WATERS WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AKPEN AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA...PUTTING
THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GFS ALSO SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS LARGELY BASED OFF THE 00Z GFS.

SOME INCONSISTENCIES WORTH MENTIONING ARE OUT WEST WHERE THERE ARE
SOME LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MANY MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
BETWEEN 60 AND 108 HOURS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM THE MEAN GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT COMES BACK
INTO PHASE IN THE EXTENDED. MORE ON THIS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE INTERIOR HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES REPORTED IN
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE GAP WINDS REMAIN FIERCE EARLY
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT ALIGNED IN THE
MOST FAVORABLE ORIENTATION. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE WATER
WHERE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW QUICKLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST TONIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THAT TROUGH WILL BE A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ON TUESDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG TUESDAY MORNING
IF CLOUDS CAN DISSIPATE QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ONLY GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THIS WEEK. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE LOWS
AND FRONTS MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA SPREADING RAIN AND WIND ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE DOWNSLOPED BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON DURING
THE WEEK.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION MENTIONED...EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS AS MULTIPLE LOWS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A 960 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN BERING AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA RESULTS
IN SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND POTENTIAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AKPEN
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE THERE ARE THE MOST DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION...STILL WORTH MENTIONING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS NOW HAVE HINTED AT A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO
NOTEWORTHY IS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MITAG...CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE
PHILIPPINES AND TAIWAN. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND WILL
BECOME ENTRENCHED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESURFACE FRIDAY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THE SUBSEQUENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE
TROPICAL ORIGINS OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY STRONG
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AKPEN AND POSSIBLY KODIAK ISLAND. ANY FURTHER
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE A
STRONG AFFECT ON SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEK. CONSENSUS NOW IS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD ALLOW COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 138.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 141 150 155 160 165 170
         172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
739 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANCHORAGE               61.18N 149.19W
11/25/2007  M74 MPH                             AK   MESONET

            THE GLEN ALPS HANDAR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH AT
            500 AM AST THIS MORNING.

&&

DANG