High Wind in Alaska, November 16, 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING AN
APPROACHING 962 MB STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 50N/140W AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST AT 35 KTS. THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM
HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE NORTH AS IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THIS WILL
NOT BE READILY APPARENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL CLOUD MASS HAS ALREADY COVERED ALL OF THE PANHANDLE
EXCEPT YAKUTAT AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN MORE THICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NOW
DOWN TO -50F. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
THERE IS A SHARPLY DEFINED BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF ALSO EVIDENT IN
IMAGERY AS WELL AS COLD AIR AND A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL LOW. COLD AIR HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND
THE BASE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...EXPECT
TO SEE THE STRONGEST OVER-WATER SURFACE WINDS TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE BAROCLINIC LEAF AND THE COLD AIR. RAIN
HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE
PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE WIND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP IN EARNEST
NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE WITH SOUTHEAST AT 30 KT GUSTING TO 35
KTS. WIND ADVISORY SCHEDULED TO BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
THE OUTER COAST UP TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER AT NOON. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONES 23...27 AND 28 IS FOLLOWED UP BY A HIGH WIND
WATCH BEGINNING AT 6PM. BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA...HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BUT
NOT 24. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 45 KTS FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS AND WIND CHANNELED LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW MID MORNING.

.LONG RANGE...ANTICIPATE FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE.  STRONG
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS IT FILLS.  THE 12Z GFS/UKMET HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE OF
SIMILAR THINKING TO THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE.  WILL LEAVE MOST FIELDS
AS IS AND DO SOME SLIGHT TWEAKING OF THE WIND TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WILL CARRY AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LOOK INTO THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS WITH THE SHORT
RANGE.  FOR NOW...HIGH GALE FORCE WIND IN THE OUTSIDE AND COASTAL
MARINES ALSO LOOK REASONABLE.

AS THE LOW PULLS INLAND NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WINDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY.  BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST REVOLVES AROUND A LOW FORMING IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
NEAR KODIAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS THAT THE ECMWF AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DIFFER IN STRENGTH BY ABOUT 10 MB AND THAT THE
ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF DEVIATION.  THEREFORE WILL NOT
MAKE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.  LIKELY POPS AND GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM REASONABLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...ZONES 23-27-28 WIND ADVISORIES NOON-6PM...HIGH WIND
   WATCH 6PM THRU 12 NOON FRI. ALL OTHER ZONES XCP 18-19 WIND
   ADVISORY AFT 3 PM TODAY.

MARINE...STORM WARNING LATE TNGT PKZ041-043. GALE WARNINGS
   TDA-TNGT ALL ZONES XCP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR STEPHENS
   PASG AND YAK BAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1101 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.82W
11/15/2007  M60 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            HYDABURG ASOS REPORT IS FIRST VERIFICATION OF HIGH WIND.

&&

JBT