High Wind in Alaska, November 10, 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...969 MB LOW JUST NW LANGARA AT 13Z WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE N THRU THE INNER CHANNELS...GETTING JUST N OF THE AREA AS A
STRONG TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING. WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE
NRN AND ERN GULF WILL MOVE THRU THE NE GULF COAST BY EARLY
EVENING. A LOW JUST S OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF
TODAY...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE AREA TODAY...WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN AT FIRST OVER THE S...THEN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE
MAY BE TSTMS ALONG THE SRN COAST AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. WITH
LOW SO WRAPPED UP NOW...WINDS TO S AND SE WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG...WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 60 MPH OVER THE FAR S THIS
MORNING. WENT WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SRN 3 ZONES FOR
THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 40-50 MPH LEVELS IN THE
S-CENTRAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SO
ISSUED WIND ADVY FOR ZONE 26 FROM 18Z-00Z TODAY. MAY BE CLOSE
ALSO FOR ZONE 23...BUT WITH LOW TRACK TO THEIR E...NOT SO
CONFIDENT ADVY LEVELS WILL BE REACHED...SO KEPT THEM OUT.

MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW INTO THE FAR SE
GULF AND ADJACENT COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WELL SW OF
THE LOW LOOK FAIRLY STRONG AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND ADJACENT OUTER COAST...SO PUT
IN ISOLATED TSTMS THERE. SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AND REACH A LITTLE FURTHER N TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS. COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE INLAND BY LATE
EVENING AND EXPECT TSTM THREAT TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE NRN AREAS...TRICKIEST ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PRECIP TYPE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC LOW LIKELY
GOING JUST E OF THE PAJN AREA...AREAS W OF THE TRACK WILL GET
INTO FAIRLY STRONG DEFORMATION BAND...AND WINDS UNDER THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PAJN AREA.
WENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW FOR PAJN/PAOH/PAHN/PAGY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MENTIONED ACCUMS UP TO 1 INCH PAOH/PAHN/PAGY
AREAS...UP TO 2 INCHES FOR PAGS AREA...AND UP TO 3 INCHES PAJN
AREA MAINLY N TAKU INLET. SRN AREAS MAY GET UP TO ANOTHER INCH
TONIGHT...WITH NRN AREAS GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES. ONCE WINDS PICK
UP LATER TONIGHT AND PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS...SHOULD SEE
MAINLY RAIN THEN.

FINALLY FOR THE PAYA AREA...WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH PRECIP
EARLY ON DO TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND MOST PRECIP FALLING ALONG AND ON
S SIDE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD PICK UP THEN...THEN A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THEY SAW ISOLATED TSTMS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION THEM THERE ATTM.

.LONG RANGE...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS MORNING ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MON. THEY STRUGGLE SOME DURING THE WEEK
AND THEN COMPLETELY DIVERGE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK WITH A VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH THE TIMING OF THE VERY STRONG 945MB LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. WITH THAT SAID...USED A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS40/00Z AND THE UKMET THROUGH MON. TRENDED TO BLEND IN THEN
ECMWF/00Z WITH THE GFS40 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS
SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF STRONG LOW BUT WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE
DEPTH.

A WAVE OVER THE JUST SOUTH OF 50N SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST THEN TURN TO THE NE AND DEEPEN INTO THE
970S MB BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MON AND INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
THAT WIND ADV WILL BE NEEDED. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 45 MPH OVER
THE SOUTH THREE ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE ZONE
26 BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND BE IN CANADA LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS OUT OF
INTERIOR PASS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER THE INSIDE MARINE
WATERS. THE SE GULF WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW BY THE EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
TO HELP IN THE LIFTING PROCESS.

FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL BE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND AT THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO FOR
THE MOST PART IT WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN OVER
PAOH AND PAJN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW THAT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND PAYA WILL CLEAR OUT
TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE PAJN AREA FROM
THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND PUSH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTH TO KEEP THE DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT THE TEMPS WILL DROP ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
EXTENDING SE MON WILL PUSH EAST AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUE AND BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER LIKELY TO A CHANCE
WITH SOME PRECIP MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN ARES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONSHORE AT MOST LEVELS. A UPPER TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY WED AND PUSH A SURFACE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TO SMALL CRAFT AND KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE VERY VERY
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU THROUGH FRI. THERE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH AS MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ALL HAVE A 945MB LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BUT THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE. IT
RANGES FROM LATE WED TO THU AFTERNOON. ATTM WITH COORDINATION
WITH PANC JUST LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST OUT AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO WITH THIS LOW. THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...ZONES 27>29
      ...WIND ADVISORY...ZONE 26

MARINE...GALE...PKZ033-035-036-041-042-310
      ...SCA...PKZ022-031-032-034-043-051-052

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
510 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.32N 131.61W
11/10/2007  M63 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            KETCHIKAN AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED WIND GUST TO 63 MPH.

&&

RWT