Although there was no significant synoptic scale weather system, airmass convection broke out over Southern SE Alaska early on the morning of Tuesday, July 31st.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
Although there was no significant synoptic scale weather system, airmass convection broke out over Southern SE Alaska early on the morning of Tuesday, July 31st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 5:00 AM AKST, 0 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1100 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007 .SYNOPSIS... .SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS REVEALING A WEAK MARINE PUSH ALONG THE OUTER COAST BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN SOME PLACES. THE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST INTO ALBERTA AND LEFT OVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 25 AND 26 SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT THERE IS A MOISTURE PLUME TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE THAT IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS OF ZONE 27. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND AM EXPECTING WEDNESDAY TO BE MUCH LESS CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF SEAK ONCE ANY LEFT OVER MARINE STRATUS GETS DISSIPATED FROM THE TOP DOWN AND FROM EAST TO WEST TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING BUT NAM IS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES FASTER AND FARTHER EAST THAN GFS. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS VORTICITY FIELD IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER MATCH TO CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN NAM. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST APART FROM LYNN CANAL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. .LONG RANGE...MODEL CONSENSUS GOOD FOR 998 MB LOW INVOF ADAK 12Z WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVED THIS LOW ABOUT 200 NM N FROM MODELS RUN 24 HRS AGO...AND HAVE MOVED OTHER FEATURES FARTHER N INCLUDING THE ASSOCIATED SECTION OF THE JETSTREAM. THIS DISPLACEMENT N WILL HELP THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM THE WRN PAC VAPOR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH OLD TYPHOONS TO PRECIP OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR FORECAST DOMAIN. THE WARM SECTOR RIDGE ALOFT THAT IS BEING PUMPED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPRESS AND WEAKEN THE LOW 800 NM S OF SEWARD AND PREVENT THIS LOW FROM MAKING A LANDFALL NORTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES ABT 18Z THU. WKNG OF THIS LOW WILL PREVENT SGFNT DOWNSLOPE IN PNHDL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO REMAINS GOOD THAT THE NEXT MAJOR DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE POLAR FRONT ZONE...CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PEN...WILL ORGANIZE WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL WAVE TO GENERATE A LARGE SCALE WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM ABOUT 40N ON THE FAR SIDE OF THE DATELINE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK TO 200 NM S OF ADAK ABOUT 06Z FRI AND ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL WAVE GENERATE THE LARGE SCALE WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM LATITUDES WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. FOR LESS THAN 24 ENDING 12Z SAT THESE TWO FRONTAL WAVES BEING IN PHASE WILL RESULT IN A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP ABOUNTS...SPCLY IN THE SRN HLF OF THE PANHANDLE. BY 12Z SAT THE LOW LATITUDE SOURCE REGION COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STRAIGHT PATH TOWARD THE ENE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FMH1 MDT RAIN...OR WHAT THE PUBLIC WOULD CALL RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. MONITORING THE NW PAC FOR WATER VAPOR PLUMES FROM OLD TYPHOONS SHOULD MATTER IN THE LONGEST RANGE. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THESE WATER VAPOR PLUMES WILL NOT TRACK TO SE AK UNTIL LATE WEEKEND AND AFTER MUCH DEPLETION. SUCH WATER VAPOR PLUMES CAN BE UNDERREPRENTED IN THE MODELS AS EXAMINED...AND THE LARGER LATENT HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN IMPORTANT FEATURE CHANGES OR MODEL SPREAD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE FACTORED DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY. .AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PUBLIC...NONE MARINE...NONE FCF JT
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
At 0400 AKST on Tuesday July 31st, the crew of the cruise ship STATENDAM observed and photographed a funnel cloud in Felice Strait on the East side of Metlakatla Island (near WSO Annette). No damage occurred and apparently did last only a short period of time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 39094.