Flood in Alaska, January 25 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM AST THU JAN 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS IMPACTING MUCH OF ALASKA TODAY. THE LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.
OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
KODIAK ISLAND. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ALONG IN JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO THE PRIBILOFS
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN
BRISTOL BAY AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED.
THE OTHER TWO WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WEAKENS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS...THIS IS LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. KODIAK CITY RECEIVED
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND WILL SPREAD TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH PORTAGE
VALLEY AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP PRECIP LIGHT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AS NOTED BY THE DURATION OF SNOW AT KODIAK BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN...THERE IS SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
OCCLUDE WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. SO PRECIP
TYPE ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALASKA WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO IMPROVE AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES UP TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OTHERS TO FOLLOW. AIR ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GET WARMER AND WARMER AS EACH SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 125 131 155 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 101.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 150 155 160
                      170 171 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 179 185.

SEB JAN 07