High Wind in Alaska, December 2 to 3, 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN DEC 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS REVEALING STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN QUEEN
CHARLOTTES HAS SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND
IT...ALSO CLEARLY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT IN A NNW DIRECTION ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COASTLINE BEFORE TRACKING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE
A RETURN OF THE MORE TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL
THEN WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS FIRST UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS BETWEEN
THEM.

WIND ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...PETERSBURG...AND HYDER ZONES.
PANHANDLE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN ELFIN COVE...HOONAH...AND
TENAKEE SPRINGS SO WILL HAVE TO BEGIN THOSE ADVISORIES A LITTLE
EARLY. DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WIND GUSTS ARE REGULARLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS AND...ALTHOUGH A WIND ADVISORY IS TECHNICALLY IF
EFFECT...THE HIGH WIND WATCH ACCOUNTS FOR THESE WINDS. WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PEAKING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A TAKU WIND
EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU STILL REMAINS LIKELY. THOUGH THE TIMING
OF THE ONSET AND END OF THE EVENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT LEFT AND
RIGHT...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING AND END
TOMORROW EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM OFFSHORE EXTENT AS OF TODAY BUT ALL OF THE PANHANDLE CAN
STILL EXPECT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT. HAVE FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW ADJUSTED DAY TIME HIGHS AND NIGHT TIME LOWS DOWN. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING AS A RESULT.

STILL NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 29 NEAR HYDER. SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS
THAN AN INCH...IF ANY...ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO 2 INCHES NEAR
HYDER. THE OTHER WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING SPRAY FOR SEVERAL
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS COASTAL
MARINE ZONE 43 WEST OF CROSS SOUND.

.LONG RANGE...MAINLY CONCENTRATING FORECAST ATTENTION TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. COLD SURFAC ARCTIC HIGH OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA STILL THE MAIN WEATHER INTO THE MIDWEEK FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PANHANDLE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
INTERIOR PASSES HAS QUITE A BIT OF WIND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND STILL LOOKING LIKE THOSE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY OR SO.  THE TAKU WIND EVENT FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH FOR THERE FOR NOW.
WILL TRY TO MAKE MENTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE COASTAL MARINES
ON THE OUTSIDE.

AS THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES TO THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST IT
IS BEEN CONTINUING TO TAKE A SOUTHERLY TRACK AND MAKES LAND FALL
OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BETWEEN VANCOUVER AND QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT THE IDEA OF JUST CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS WELL WITH THIS. I WONDER HOW MUCH
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BRING...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR REINFORCEMENT ON THE LAND FROM THE INTERIOR.  SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE YAKUTAT ZONE. THIS COMMENTED ON IN THE
MORNING DISCUSSION AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS CONTINUES
TO PLAY OUT BUT WILL NOT GET TO EXCITED AT THIS TIME.  THE
RESIDUAL OF THE WAVE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY
THURSDAY.

NEW MODELS A BIT DIFFERENT FOR LATER WEDNESDAY TO LATER WEEK SO
NOT GOING TO DO ANY TWEAKS AFTER DISCUSSING WITH ANCHORAGE.  BUT
THERE IS STRONGER FEATURE MOVING IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.  SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL HAVE HAD SOME
WARM UP TEMPERATURE WISE BEFORE THIS ONE GETS TO THE PANHANDLE
BUT WONDER IF ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE GONE.  IF IT IS NOT
THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL SNOW DUMP FOR NEXT WEEKEND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH AKZ025. WIND ADVISORIES ALL REMAINING
ZONES

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT PKZ032>036-041. GALES ELSEWHERE.

FCF - BMB