High Wind in Washington, December 2 to 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A LITTLE MORNING SNOW TO SOME SPOTS TODAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER VERY WET SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IN THE MIDST OF A WILD WEEKEND OF WEATHER. JUST GOING
TO HIT THE HIGHLIGHTS.

SNOW...MOSTLY RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT SEVERAL PLACES HAVE TURNED
OVER TO SNOW. IN FACT SOME PLACES OBVIOUSLY DID NOT RAIN AT ALL LAST
NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF REPORTS...FALL CITY AND NORTH BEND...HAVE STORM
TOTALS OF 13 INCHES. IT IS ALSO SNOWING IN THE HOOD CANAL AREA AND
WILL KEEP SNOW ADVISORY GOING THERE. MUCH WARMER FROM CHEHALIS SOUTH
AND THE HOPE IS THIS WARMER AIR WILL TRICKLE NORTH AND WARM
EVERYTHING INTO RAIN. KBLI WILL BE LAST AREA TO GET WARMTH AND A
SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE TO COVER SNOW UNTIL THEN. STILL
COMING DOWN HEAVILY IN THE CASCADES AND THAT WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY.
WARNINGS STAY IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEE
AVALANCHE SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...NOW LOOKING CAREFULLY AT WIND FIELDS MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG IN PORTLAND CWA PORTION OF THE COAST TODAY BUT LOOK TO BE
WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN WASHINGTON PORTION. MONDAY IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. BOTH MM5-ETA AND MM5-GFS BRING HIGH WIND TO THE
COAST BEGINNING 09Z MONDAY...STARTING ON THE SOUTH PART AND
SPREADING TO THE NORTH PART BY 12Z. HIGH WIND CONTINUES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE WIND OF 40 MPH
CONTINUING FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS SHOULD BE DAMAGING. MM5-ETA ALSO
HAS BRIEF HIGH WIND IN THE STRAIT AREA AND IN THE NW INTERIOR ZONES.
THE MESOLOW IT DEVELOPS IS NORTH OF THE OLYMPICS RATHER THAN
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH WIND FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE
SEATTLE METRO AREA. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS KEEP THIS
IDEA. PROBABLY WILL GO TO HIGH WIND WARNING ON THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING AND
MAY SEND FIRST WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON. NO REAL CHANGES TO THINKING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE FLOODING ON
OLYMPICS RIVERS. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER SYSTEM GOES THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WIND AND SNOW PROBLEMS SHOULD DISAPPEAR. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER W FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP GOING ALONG THE N
BORDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL COULD HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND.
TOO MANY SHORT TERM PROBLEMS TO DIG INTO THE LONG TERM. KAM

&&

.AVALANCHE...EXISTING UNSTABLE SNOWPACK STRUCTURE AND INCREASING
LOADS DUE TO STRONG WINDS...VERY HEAVY SNOW THEN RAIN...AND WARMING
TREND FULLY EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN AVALANCHE CYCLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN NOT RECOMMENDED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PLEASE SEE WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. FERBER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WRN WA LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STATED...RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
-- OR CHANGE TO SNOW -- AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
HOWEVER...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WRN WA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. MVFR WILL LIKELY BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...WITH SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY
STRONG -- AROUND 45 KT AT 1500 FT AND 60 KT AT 3000 FT.

AT KSEA...LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH 18Z...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BY 18Z PCPN SHOULD BE
FALLING AS RAIN WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SITE
AROUND 21Z. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER WIND AS WELL -- THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SOUTH WIND 20 KT GUSTING 30 KT LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW BUT I WILL TRY TO REFINE IT WITH 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND ITS WARM
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
MON WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION...COMBINED SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 35 FT MON WITH HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES AND OLYMPICS.
.SNOW ADVISORY HOOD CANAL AREA AND WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
.FLOOD WATCH MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
.COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE COAST.
.HIGH SURF WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE COAST.
.STORM WARNING COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
.GALE WARNING ALL OTHER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
741 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     SNOW             5 NNW GRAND MOUND       46.88N 123.04W
12/02/2007  M2.0 INCH        THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW OVERNIGHT...STILL SNOWING NOW.

0736 AM     SNOW             3 ESE NORTH BEND        47.47N 121.74W
12/02/2007  M13.0 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW TOTAL OF 13 INCHES.

0736 AM     SNOW             6 NW NORTH BEND         47.56N 121.86W
12/02/2007  M13.0 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            13 INCHES STORM TOTAL IN FALL CITY...STILL SNOWING
            LIGHTLY.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
957 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     SNOW             3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
12/02/2007  M3.0 INCH        MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCHES OVERNIGHT...4-5 TOTAL SNOW TOTAL.

0736 AM     SNOW             N BIRDSVIEW             48.52N 121.88W
12/02/2007  M4.0 INCH        SKAGIT             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE INCH FALLING IN LAST HOUR.

0736 AM     SNOW             1 N GRASSMERE           48.53N 121.79W
12/02/2007  M7.0 INCH        SKAGIT             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 INCHES SNOW TOTAL...2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. NEARBY ROADS
            AROUND CONCRETE IN BAD CONDITION.

&&

DDAMICO