Flash Flooding in Alabama, October 22 to 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
432 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTH AS DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP
LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST. A
GRADUAL OCCLUSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES US
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS OVER AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY
SATURATED IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD THE MOST
RAINFALL RECENTLY ARE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN GULF SHORES AND
DESTIN. FURTHER INLAND NOT AS LIKELY TO BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT THERE
IS REMAINS A RISK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE TRAINING CELLS COULD BRING NEARLY 5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL AGAIN UPDATE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH
THE REGULAR FORECAST PACKAGE AROUND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MAINLY ALONG THE BEACH AND PERHAPS 10 TO 15
MILES INLAND. MINI-SUPERCELLS SPINNING UP OFFSHORE HAVE BEEN MOVING
INLAND AND INTO THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE AIR STABILIZES THUS
WEAKENING UPDRAFTS AND VORTEX STRETCHING. SR VELOCITY COUPLETS OF 35
TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN DOPPLER VELOCITIES IN 1 TO 1.5 NM
MESOS...PUTTING THEM IN MODERATE TO STRONG CATEGORY.

GFS AND NAM INDICATE 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MAX TO NORTHWEST INTO
TONIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
BRING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND SEVERE THREAT
MORE TOWARD FLASH FLOODING IN TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SHORT TERM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...500 MB TROUGH VICINITY OF GREAT PLAINS
WAS TO TRACK EAST. OCCLUSION OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CALCULATED BY
THE GFS AND THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...FROM THE
MAIN POLAR JET BY TAU 18 BY AT LEAST TWO CONTOUR LINES. SYSTEM THEN
RETROGRADES FOLLOWED BY WANDERING AROUND AIMLESSLY FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE JET AROUND TAU 120.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE NAM IS NOW A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...6 HOURS
TO BE SPECIFIC...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE GFS WAS THE
SLOWER OF THE TWO. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS
AND INDICATED FROPA STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AND ENDING BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES IN KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS WATCH
AND OUR NEIGHBORS. POST-FRONTAL PROBLEM WILL MAINLY BE THE DOWNSLOPE
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS NOR
FORECAST. NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE A POP SPIKE ON FRIDAY. MAY BE
TEMPORAL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING
OUT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SAME.

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS...CLOUDY MOIST CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD LOUISIANA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BY
MIDWEEK BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT
PASSES THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  70  49  65 /  90  30  20  20
PENSACOLA   74  74  54  67 /  80  40  20  20
DESTIN      75  75  64  67 /  70  50  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  69  53  66 /  90  50  20  20
WAYNESBORO  65  65  47  61 / 100  30  20  20
CAMDEN      69  69  54  66 / 100  60  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-231200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT...

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MOSTLY NEAR AND ALONG A WARM
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
DEPTH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO GIVE
WAY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WILL HELP GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

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