Hail and Damaging Wind in Wyoming, August 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
TUESDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS BACK OUT OVER THE REGION
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...AND
THEN A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
645 AM MDT SAT AUG 19 2006

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-201300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
645 AM MDT (745 AM CDT) SAT AUG 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
703 PM MDT SAT AUG 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             5 NW ROCHELLE           43.64N 105.03W
08/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       WESTON             WY   PUBLIC

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW ROCHELLE           43.64N 105.03W
08/19/2006  E60 MPH          WESTON             WY   PUBLIC

&&

WETENKAMP