Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, August 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IS PULLING OUT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE FRONT SEEMS
STRONGEST WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STILL WEST OF
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE REGION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BACK IN SUN NIGHT, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF WEEK. THERE WERE 3-7 DEGREES DIFFS IN LOWS SUN NIGHT, SO I
TOOK AN AVG. STARTING MON, DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS WERE LESS. GFS
BRINGS COLD FRONT SOUTH TUE INTO TUE EVE, WITH 30% POPS. BY THU, SFC
RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS PA WITH H5 RIDGE TO MY W, OVER DTW. ON FRI, SHORT
WAVE AND SFC FRONT PASS N OF PA, KEEPING MY POPS ABT 15%. A MORE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM COMES IN LATE SAT, SO POPS GO UP TO 30% SAT. I KEPT
TEMPS CLOSE TO GFS VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ARE MOVING TO THE EAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN NORTH
ARE GETTING BETTER AND MVFR TO VFR SHOULD RETURN. WITH FRONT STILL TO
THE WEST AND INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.

WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT FROM
THE RAIN...EXPECT SOME FOG TOWARDS MORNING. IT SHOULD MAINLY FORM IN
THE MVFR (3-5 MILE) RANGE.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-200845-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
432 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
502 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

PAZ031-WVZ004-192200-
GREENE PA-MARSHALL WV-
502 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
GREENE AND MARSHALL...

AT 455 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES SOUTH OF GLEN EASTON...OR
ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF WILEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS CAN GUST TO 40 MPH AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL AS
HAVE INTENSE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BUZZ...ROGERSVILLE...WAYNESBURG...ALEPPO...MORRISVILLE...MOUNT
  CARMEL...OAK FOREST...CAMERON AND GLEN EASTON

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.