Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO POP A QUICK HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS. SFC DEW POINTS OF 74 TO 79 POOLING ACROSS THE REGION
PUSHED THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 105 BY 1 PM CDT. WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY TIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WITH PRECIP CHCS.

SFC FRONT LATE AT MID AFTERNOON WAS INCHING SOUTH TOWARD THE STL
AREA. NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR WITH THE
BOUNDARY...DESPITE QUITE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. ALL IN ALL...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT STILL A BIT SURPRISED THAT WE
ARE NOT SEEING AT LEAST HIT AND MISS STORMS THUS FAR. MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. THAT...COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BEEN HITTING ON POST FRONTAL
PRECIP CHANCES AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROF COMES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. NAM NOW HINTS AT THIS SOLUTION ALSO. INDEED...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT SO FAR HAS BEEN POST FRONTAL...SO WILL LEAN IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR THE TUE THROUGH FRI
TIME FRAME...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CDT FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
HENDERSON TO CALHOUN LINE.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CDT FOR ALL ZONES.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CDT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A
CARBONDALE TO HARRISBURG LINE.

IN...NONE.

&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...MEANS A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FOUR STATE AREA SUNDAY...THEN MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON
MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...SHOULD TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.