Hail in Wisconsin, June 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM RIDES WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES
OUT AHEAD OF MAIN WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH SOUTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS
ACROSS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINS CLOSE TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST MN...AND AHEAD
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SCATTERED TRW- FOR THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.  COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES SHOULD SAG INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST
MN SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER MAINLY EASTERN
CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE ENOUGH
SHEAR AVAILABLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST
CWA...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TWIN CITIES METRO. GFS MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPS NOT BAD OVERALL.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO COMING NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GRETA
LAKES.  STILL LIKE THE 00Z GFS TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.  THIS SHOULD KEEP WESTERN CWA DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE EAST...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.  DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  00Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TREND OF NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.  WILL MENTION LOW POPS OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE WAA
ACCAS/SHRA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS CWA
MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONGER TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BOTH THE 24/00Z ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS BRING AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB
SHORT WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA FOR QUITE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND JUNE
INSOLATION SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION MENTIONED FOR THIS PERIOD...DAY SHIFT CAN
EVALUATE NEED TO RAISE POPS BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE. AFTER WEDNESDAY
THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPART MARKEDLY. BOTH FEATURE A DRY PATTERN...BUT
THE OPERATIONAL GFS DIGS A VERY STG 500 MB LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS...IF TRUE...WOULD USHER IN QUITE COOL AIR.
IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF FEATURES A MUCH LESS MERIDIONAL FLOW
PATTERN. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS MOS GIVES US JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SUGGESTING THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY HAVE
TOO MUCH AMPLITUDE. WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE GFS MOS AS A REASONABLE
FIRST FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING NEW DAY 7...SATURDAY...JULY 1ST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/RJN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
829 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251330-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
829 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

RAH