Hail and Damaging Winds in Colorado, June 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
240 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TNGT-SUN...MDLS MAINTAIN NWLY FLO ALF ACRS
CNTRL RCKYS WITH SFC HI PRES ENTRENCHED OVR THE GRT PLAINS.  MOIST
LO LVL UPSLP FLO AND A WK SHT WV WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE INSTBLTY FOR
SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE ERN SLPS OF MTNS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND
CYS AND PALMER DVDS.  A FEW TSTMS MAY BCM SVR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
FRTHR TO THE E THE COOL AIR IN LO LVLS HAS CAPPED THE AMS.  FRTHR
TO THE W OVER THE MTNS AND HI VLYS THE AMS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY AND STBL BUT RADAR SHWS SUM SHWRS IN N PARK THIS AFTN.  MDLS
TEND TO HANG ON TO PCPN OVR PLAINS THRU NGT SO WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC
OF SHWRS.  ON SUN LTL CHNG IN CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION BUT RISK
OF SVR MAY BE LWR.  TEMPS WILL CONT ON COOL SIDE OVR PLAINS.  WILL
MAKE ONLY SML ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS TEMP GDNC VALUES.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OVR ERN COLORADO.  FOR THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD...A SERIES OF SURGES WL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT ELY FLOW.  AS A RESULT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OVERALL THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS SO NO BIG CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.  THE NEXT SURGE WILL IMPACT NERN CO SUNDAY AFTN...THEN
TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING...AND ANOTHER LATE WEDNESDAY/ERLY THURSDAY.  IN
EACH INSTANCE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  OVER
THE NERN PLAINS...SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...BUT NOT ENTIRELY SO WL STICK WITH GENERALLY ISOLD POPS
THERE...WITH SCT POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE GFS DOES SHOW A
SHORT WAVE OVERRIDING THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SO THIS UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SURGE AT THAT TIME.
FCST CAPES FM THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH
VALUES RAING FM 700-1000 J/KG ALG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE
...SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW BUT COULD BE MORE FVBL ENVIRONMENT FOR
PCPN.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GARD/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1058 AM MDT SAT JUN 24 2006

COZ030>051-251200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1058 AM MDT SAT JUN 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THE THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

A SURGE OF COOLER AIR THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS FARTHER
TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS CAPPED.  THE AIR MASS FARTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY
AND STABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...AND ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF TWO RELATIVELY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GARD/COOPER