Hail and Damaging Wind in Wisconsin, July 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A LOT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT
FRONT CROSSING CWA NOW IGNITING WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
02Z...AND THEN WHAT TO DO WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE
AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER THAN I
WOULD LIKE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAVE MON NIGHT AND TUES...AND
REALLY RELIED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS TO DAMPEN OUT THE SIGNIFICANT
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES CROPPING UP OF LATE IN THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS.

EAST-WEST COLD FRONT ALONG I-90 RIGHT NOW WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST EAST OF LA CROSSE. LOW LEVEL FLOW NOT VERY CONVERGENT ALONG
THIS FRONT...SAVE FOR THE VCTY OF THIS WEAK LOW NEAR KLSE WHERE
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF HOUSTON/WINONA/LA
CROSSE COUNTIES WHICH HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED. MONITORING THIS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SOON AS MLCIN HAS PRETTY MUCH DECREASED TO
LESS THAN 50 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY AMIDST ML CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI. DEEP LAYER /0-6KM/
BULK SHEAR PER BLUE RIVER PROFILER AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ON
LAPS/RUC RUNNING 30-35 KTS IN STRONG WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SO ANY
STORM WHICH CAN INITIATE ALONG FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
RIGHT NOW RADAR IS CLEAN...BUT CUMULUS GROWING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP. RUC AND ARW-WRF HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT OTHER CUMULUS FIELD IN
FAR SRN CWA /GRANT COUNTY/ WILL IGNITE WITH CONVECTION AS FORCING
FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST GRAZES THIS HIGHER
CAPE /2500 J/KG/ AXIS 22-00Z. THIS TOO BEING WATCHED. DEWPOINTS
MUCH HIGHER IN FAR SRN CWA OWING TO THE HIGHER CAPE...AND LINGERED
SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS IN SRN CWA THIS EVENING FOR THESE CHANCES.
COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE INITIAL SVR BOX GOING UP TO
OUR EAST. ZONES WILL BE ISSUED WITH LATE AFTERNOON WORDING TO GRAB
THIS SCENARIO.

OTHER CONCERN IS RAPIDLY CHANGING MODEL SUITES IN REGARD TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION WHICH WILL EJECT OUT OF
COLORADO TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUES. NEW /12Z/ GFS MUCH FASTER...AND IN STEP WITH 12Z UKMET. NAM
IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND WRAPPED UP...AND SPREADS COPIOUS RAINS
MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN ANY OTHER MODEL SUITE.
COORDINATION WITH HPC /QPF/ FORECASTERS SUGGEST THIS SOLN NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF LINE...BUT LIKELY A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. FOUND A
RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT IN THE SREF MEANS...WHICH SPREAD DECENT
FORCING AND WELCOME RAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHICH
FITS CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES. OPNL GFS SUFFERING FROM
SIGNIFICANT GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK. BOTTOM LINE...IS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD AREA MORE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY DONE FOR THE MOST PART
BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH MORE SCATTERED CHANCES INTO WED
AFTN AS LAGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AREA. TIED POPS VERY
CLOSELY TO THE SREF MEANS...WHICH STILL TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAINS
THROUGH SRN IA/NRN MO INTO WRN IL AND SERN WISC ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES. GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH UKMET AND CANADIAN. FEEL MOST OF
CWA WILL SEE RAINS...BUT I AM DOUBTING THE NAM/WRF AMOUNTS
NORTHWEST OF A AUSTIN TO MEDFORD LINE. SEEM WAY TOO HEAVY GIVEN
THE OTHER SOLNS PRESENTED. AGREEMENT FROM HPC. UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUES...AND SPREAD CHANCES IN MORE
QUICKLY ON MON NIGHT. TUES POPS MAY NEED TO BE UPPED EVERYWHERE AS
TIME GOES ON. HOPE TO SEE SOME LOCALLY MODERATE /1 INCH/ RAINS
MANY AREAS TO ALLEVIATE RECENT DRYNESS. COULD EVEN SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE HUGE PRECIP WATER POOL /GREATER THAN 2
INCHES/ TO OUR SOUTH...AND WARM CORE OF SYSTEM /INCREASED PCPN
EFFICIENCY/.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF ARX CWA. IN FACT...00Z ECWMF HAS
595DM H5 HEIGHT CENTER OVER NRN IA BY NEXT SUNDAY...SO NO DOUBT
INCREASED HEAT AND A TRUE SUMMERTIME REGIME IS IN THE OFFING.
STRONG CONSENSUS IN OPNL RUNS OF ECMWF/GFS OF 19-20C H85 AIR ON
THURSDAY MODERATING TO 22-24C /DGEX APPROACHES 26C/ SO THIS
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE
LONG RANGE PERIOD. H85 TEMP AND ESPECIALLY H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS LEND SUPPORT TO THIS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE TEMP DEPT. PCPN CHANCES FAR LESS
DEFINED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR WAVES OR CONVERGENCE AXIS. THESE REMAIN
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NRN
PLAINS. KEPT PCPN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY ARE /BASICALLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY/ AND REMOVED FRI NIGHT POPS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

BINAU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTOR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
509 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

WIZ017-029-033-034-042-101100-
CLARK-JACKSON-MONROE-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
509 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM. HOWEVER NONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ030-WIZ043-044-053>055-061-111000-
ADAMS-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-GRANT-JUNEAU-RICHLAND-VERNON-
509 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM
GENERALLY EAST OF A TOMAH WISCONSIN TO ELKADER IOWA LINE. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-041-111000-
ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-DODGE-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOUSTON-
HOWARD-LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
509 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE