Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...ON THE LARGE SCALE...RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROF WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD WL BE
FOR THE PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY...MAINLY DUE TO A FILLING OF THE ERN TROF.
THAT WL LV SEASONABLY STG WLY FLOW ACRS THE NRN STATES. DURING LATTER
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD PAC TROF WL WORK TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THAT WL
CAUSE THE WRN RIDGE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

THE POSN OF THE FCST AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WL KEEP
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. THAT WL MAKE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PCPN CHCS VERY DIFFICULT. WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT SUCH A
PATTERN TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE AMNTS OF PCPN ACRS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY WX THAT/S BEEN OCCURRING MOISTURE WL
LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED AND THAT WL PROBABLY HOLD BACK PCPN AMNTS. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN ABV NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/TUE. UPR FLOW STILL NW INTO ERN CONUS TROF. THAT
WL DRIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE AREA TDA. A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISENT LIFT ARND 850 MB WL
WORK ACRS THE AREA EARLY TDA. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY DURING
THE MID-DAY HRS...THEN REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AS COLD FRONT HEADS SE
INTO THE AREA. THE ATM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER FM THE MORNING
STORMS TO CREATE A RISK OF SVR WX THIS AFTN/EVE. MOISTURE ONLY MODERATE
FOR THIS TIME OF YR...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPR 60S EXPECTED.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. BUT...MID-
LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE FAIRLY STEEP. WOULD EXPECT A RATHER LOW-END RISK
OF SVR WIND AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

STORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH. BUT
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN FLOW WL LEAVE FRONT STRETCHED OUT PARALLEL
TO WLY UPR FLOW...SO FRONT LIKELY TO LINGER ACRS THE AREA. SO...JUST
TOOK POPS DOWN INTO THE 20S RATHER THAN ENDING CHC COMPLETELY.

FRONT WL STILL IN THE RGN TUE...SO KEPT CHC OF TSRA. REWORKED POPS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST CHC DURING THE AFTN.

TRAJ FCST FOR TDA SUPPORTED MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA TDA. UPPED MAXES...BUT HELD BACK A BIT FM THAT GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME CLDS ACRS THE RGN. TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TDA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE IN THE REGION. POPS REACHED
LIKELY CATEGORY BY THE 4TH PERIOD ON 00Z GFS AND ETA MOS. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT BUT NOT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
THE AREA TO AN END BY FRIDAY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORT WAVE...INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY BRING PCPN
CHANCES BACK UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN MONDAY.
OVERALL...CHANCES WERE FEW AND MINOR.
&&

.GRB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SKOWRONSKI/MG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-251615-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BE SURE
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION OF THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-251615-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BE SURE
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION OF THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

KURIMSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY