Flash Flood and Hail in Wisconsin, July 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1019 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

.UPDATE...
WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND 12Z RUC
SHOWING THETA E ADVECTION CONCENTRATING OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MN...AND WESTERN WI FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL UP
POPS FOR THIS AREA. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING JUST EAST OF THE CWA
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF AND 1000-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COOL FRONT.  SHORT TERM FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC.
ALTHOUGH THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CWA
TODAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN THE NAM-WRF AND GFS. THIS PLAYS HAVOC WITH POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EVENTS. SOME SIMILARITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI AND DROP SE DURING
THE EVENING. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE 850MB TROF
AXIS. SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING
INTERESTING AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND NAM-WRF ON THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PWS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE 310K THETA SURFACE FROM
THE NAM-WRF SHOWING STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. POPS
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 20 DEG C OR WARMER. EXPECT THE
WARMEST READINGS OVER WEST CENTRAL MN.

LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE EXTENDED...WITH BOTH SHOWING A FLATTENING
OF THE UPR RDG /AND A MORE ZONAL FLO PATTERN/ LATE IN THE WK...AND
AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR RDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE WKEND. HAVE KEPT THE CHC POPS GOING FOR THU AND THE SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THU NGT WITH FRONT COMING THRU...AND S/WVS MOVING THRU THE
FA. BY MID TO LATE WKEND...PRE- FRONTAL THERMAL RDG SETS IN...WHICH
SHUD BRING SOME LO TO MID 90 MAX TEMPS TO THE AREA. TWEAKED THE
POP/WX GRIDS ON SAT AFTN AND NGT...WITH LO LVL WAA AND PARADE OF
S/WVS BEING CONDUCIVE TO SOME SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BEFORE LO TO MID
LVL TEMPS GET A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SUCH ACTIVITY. TEMPS SHUD DROP
OFF A LITTLE ON MON...AS SFC HI DROPS THRU THE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/KAT/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
250945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
444 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COOL FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

WIZ016-241845-
RUSK-
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSK COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF JUMP RIVER...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM IS AT MOVES THROUGH
THE RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST RUSK COUNTY.

OTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS MAY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
LADYSMITH.

JPR