Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, April 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND FRI. MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TNGT AND ANY RISK OF SVR TSTMS.

THE 18Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS PLACED A RDG OF HI PRES OVR THE GREAT LKS WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES SITUATED OVR SE ND. A WRMFNT EXTENDED E-SE FROM THE
LOW THRU SW MN...NE IA TO NRN IL. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WRMFNT HAD JUMPED
INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE RADAR
MOSAIC PAINTED A NARROW BAND OF LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NE HALF
OF WI.

BROAD SW FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC WL NOT ONLY BRING GULF MSTR NWD INTO WI
TNGT...BUT ALSO BRING THE WRMFNT INTO SRN WI. THE LOW PRES IS FCST TO
MOV SE ALONG THIS FNT AND RESIDE OVR SRN WI AT 06Z FRI AND SRN LWR MI BY
12Z FRI. MSTR AND INSTABILITY TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVR WI THIS EVENING
AHD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. DEW PTS TO RISE INTO THE 50S JUST SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WHILE LAPSE RATES CONT TO STEEPEN (7.5C/KM). STG
SHEARING PROFILE ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS COMBINED WITH THIS MSTR AND
INSTABILITY...MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE ANTICIPATED TSTMS TO BECOME SVR
MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF NE WI CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT. DUE TO THE LOW
WET-BULM HGTS...LRG HAIL APRS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. STG SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN LTR TNGT BRINGING PCPN TO AN ABRUPT END
WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLDS ACROSS CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG OVR INLAND LOCATIONS WHERE WNDS WL BE LGT ENUF AND
LINGERING LOW-LVL MSTR TO EXIST FROM THE RAINFALL. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN
TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 10 DEGS DUE TO CLDS AND LACK OF CAA.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR FRI AS A
WEAK BUBBLE OF HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO FROM THE UPR MIDWEST. LACK
OF CLDS OR LOW LVL INVERSIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE
FRI. 8H TEMPS STILL IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN
TO THE 70S (EVEN ALONG THE LK AS WNDS TO BE W-NW).

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIDE EAST OF WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. NEW MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...
SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES
WITH GREATEST INCREASES AWAY FROM THE LAKE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM
EACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL GET BEFORE SYNOPTIC AND LAND/LAKE
BREEZE FLOW COMES ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEELING IS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING
OF THE PRECIPITATION IN GRIDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN) WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO SCALED
BACK THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ISOLATED. BEST INSTABILITY TO OUR
SOUTH.

FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FURTH SOUTH THAN YESTERDAYS MODELS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS VERY
MUDDLED AS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ARISE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.
ECMWF/CANADIAN MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LEANDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD BE A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KALLAS/ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-141700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1200 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY
THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY
RISK IS LARGE HAIL...AND IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOSINEE
TO OSHKOSH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BE SURE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH WILL BETTER BE ABLE TO DETERMINE THE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-141700-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1200 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY