Damaging Winds in Washington, July 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
420 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATUERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HAVE NOT FOUND ANYMORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIP AT THE
ASOS SITES. RADAR SHOWING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
PALOUSE AND EAST CASCADES NOW...AND EXPECT SOME MEASURABLE RAIN OUT
OF THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEFINITE BACKEDGE TO THE
PRECIP. EXPECT THIS TO BE THROUGH EASTERN WA BY 00-01Z. WITH
INCREASED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...THINK DECREASING CLOUDS IS A
GOOD BET BEHIND THE PRECIP. QUESTION IS IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO POP SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING
SOME CU POPPING ACROSS THE NORTH CASCADES AND AN ISOLATED STRIKE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER 06Z SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COOLER AIR
MASS OVER US...BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...IT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE DRY OUT AND START
TO WARM UP. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH REMAINS STRONG...EACH DAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FURTHER NORTH. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE CLIPS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND GFS IS
SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FRI AND
SAT...SO THAT BY SATURDAY WE ARE ONCE AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. /KOCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE WANES SLIGHTLY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. GFS ALSO HAS HAD SOME
CONSISTENCY ISSUES IN THE PAST 2-3 RUNS. BUT A FEW OVERALL POINTS CAN
BE DRAWN OUT...AND I/M STILL FAVORING THE GFS WHICH IS THE SLOWER OF
THE THREE MODELS (MINUS 06Z RUN). THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A TROF
OFF THE COAST...NUDGING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A FLAT RIDGE
INLAND. MINOR DISTURBANCES COME INLAND FROM THE LOW THROUGH MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY STAYS NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DUE TO WEAK WAVES AND SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE OFFSHORE TROF
CONTINUES TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES TRYING TO SLIP OVER THE AREA (AS
OPPOSED TO NORTH OF THE AREA). THIS IS TRANSLATED TO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH PERIOD AND THE COOL DOWN NOT LOOKING
AS QUICK...DUE TO SLOWER EAST PROGRESSION OF OFFSHORE TROF. /JCOTE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THUR. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
THROUGH COLUMBIA BASIN TOWARD KGEG/KCOE CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA.  BEST RISK FOR SOME STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KPUW THROUGH 04Z.  WINDS BLUSTERY THROUGH 06Z.  DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. /JCOTE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        57  80  54  83  56  88 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
COEUR DALENE  56  79  51  82  54  86 /  20   0   0  10   0   0
PULLMAN        54  79  50  82  52  87 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       62  89  60  92  63  96 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       54  83  53  85  55  87 /  20   0   0   0   0  10
SANDPOINT      53  77  50  80  52  84 /  30  10   0  10   0  10
KELLOGG        52  82  50  85  54  87 /  20  10   0  10   0   0
MOSES LAKE     59  85  55  89  57  91 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      59  83  59  86  61  90 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
OMAK           56  84  54  87  56  90 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&