Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.SHORT TERM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE SITTING OVER THE
ROCKIES WHILE DOWNSTREAM AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH IS SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS.  A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH KS THIS PAST MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
ERODE WHICH HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MORE STABLE AND
CAPPED OFF REGION.  QUICK EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  HOWEVER...THIS WEATHER
SETUP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LEAVE CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH CENTRAL KS ON
THE DRY SIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.

AS THE REGION PROGRESSES INTO WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN STARTS TO WARM
UP A TAD AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
EXPECT THIS WILL BRING A RATHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FA AS 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +26 C RANGE BRING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THE BIG EXCITEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INVOLVES A RIDGE
RUNNER WAVE THAT LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THAT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST MAY SLIDE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANOTHER WAVE WILL PLOW INTO THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY.  WITH THE SETUP SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL
FORCING NOW POSITIONED MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER VIA ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
HAMPER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE REGION WARM AND GENERALLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MAX TEMPERATURES TO HOVER NEAR THE 100 DEGREE
MARK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.  THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE THE HEAT INDICES TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH CLOUDS
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES DURING
THE DAY. THE BIG CHALLENGE WOULD BE TO SEE HOW WELL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION BEGINS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
RETROGRADES. GIVEN THE CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED.  THIS COULD LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  WILL
CONTINUE WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  ENSEMBLE MOS FROM
THE GFS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

THE SHORT AND SIMPLE FOR THE EXTENDED...HOT AND HUMID.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AWJ/LEWIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
121200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)