High Wind in Washington, January 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PST TUE JAN 31 2006

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG JET STREAM WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER WET AND WINDY
WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT WRN WA IS NOW
GETTING SPUN UP OUT AROUND 49N/142W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SUBTROPICS OUT NEAR THE DATELINE INTO THE NE PAC.
AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP ALONG THIS JET. THERE IS A WIDE SWATH OF
1.25-1.50 PWS NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET WITH PWS OF 1.8-2.0
FURTHER BACK ALONG THE JET NEAR 40N/150W. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING ONTO THE WA COAST...AND
THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA BEFORE THE MORNING IS
OVER.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SPIN UP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS IT REACHING THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES
TONIGHT AS A 970 MB LOW LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR PRE-FRONTAL GALES IN SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
COAST...THE ENTRANCES AND THE NORTH INTERIOR. LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP AND INTO PUGET
SOUND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES ONSHORE.

FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...THE AXIS OF THE POLAR JET SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO ORE...LEAVING US ON THE COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE SIDE.
WED AND THU JUST LOOK SHOWERY GIVEN SEVERAL QUICK-MOVING BUT WEAK
SHORTWAVES ENHANCING LIFT IN THE UNSTABLE REGIME.   HANER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST IN CASE YOU HAVENT HAD
ENOUGH...LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM HEADED THIS
WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONTAL RAINS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH FREEZING LEVELS JUMPING UP AS A DEEP LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS LOW (IN THE
975-980 MB RANGE) WILL MOVE SW TO NE...PASSING OVER CENTRAL TO
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND. SO RAIN NOT THE ONLY THREAT WITH
THIS STORM AS CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATED THIS COULD BE A STRONG
WIND PRODUCER. A LOT CAN HAPPEN WITH THE DETAILS WITH THIS STORM TO
CHANGE THAT THRU THE WEEK...BUT THIS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. ONCE
WE GET PAST THE WEEKEND...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY
PERIOD. KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED. CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...FRONT MOVING IN TODAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2000 TO 3000 FEET. SOME VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN
HEAVIER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND AROUND 8 KNOTS AT KSEA.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RUNNING HIGH. HIGH TIDES HAVE OCCURRED
THIS MORNING AND CURRENT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STATEMENT WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...PRESSURE WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL NEED ANOTHER MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TIDES AT SEATTLE WHERE
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW LOOKS CERTAIN. WILL NEED AN ANOMALY OF +1.5 AT
BELLINGHAM FOR OVERFLOW THERE WHICH LOOKS MARGINAL. TIDES LOWER ON
THE COAST SO NOT EXPECTING OVERFLOW THERE. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEATTLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .GALE WARNING COAST...STRAIT...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.
    .WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES AND OLYMPICS THROUGH WED MORNING.
    .SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE OLYMPICS INTO THIS EVENING.
    .FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS...REFER TO LATEST STATEMENTS.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE