Coastal Flood in Washington, February 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING RAIN
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 6000
FEET. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL THEN INVADE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL PLUMMETING TO NEAR 2000 FEET. LOOK
FOR DECREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR 47N/132W
AT 04Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A HUGE DRY SLOT LEADING INTO THE
LOW. COLD FRONT NEAR 127W AT 04Z WILL REACH THE WASHINGTON COAST
AROUND 08Z...KSEA AROUND 11Z. BENT BACK OCCLUSION BEHIND THE FRONT
ALREADY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 50 KNOT WINDS ON THE QUICKSCAT WINDS
AT 01Z. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z MODELS TONIGHT WITH THE GFS
INITIALIZED ABOUT 8 MB LOWER THAN THE GFS. THANKFULLY NO SHIP
REPORTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. 18Z GFS RUN WAS UP TO 10 MB TOO
HIGH WITH THE LOW CENTER AND IT HAD THE LOW CENTER AT 971 MB AT 06Z.
00Z RUN HAS THE LOW CENTER AT 967 MB AT 06Z. NAM 00Z RUN INDICATING
974 MB. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE PREVIOUS OBS AND
THE OB FROM BUOY 036 THAT SHOWS THE GFS BETTER INITIALIZED...WILL GO
WITH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z MM5GFS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL VANCOUVER
ISLAND AROUND 18Z SAT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB. EVEN WITH
THE SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH TRACK MODEL 18Z SAT KPDX-KBLI PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND PLUS 20 MB WITH KOLM-KBLI GRADIENT NEAR PLUS 10 MB.
IN THE STRAIT GRADIENTS AS HIGH AS PLUS 8 MB KUIL-KBLI PLUS MODEL
850 MB WINDS 15Z-00Z 40-60 KNOTS PARALLEL TO THE STRAIT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ADD THE REMAINING LOWLAND AREAS INTO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REALLY PICK UP IN THE METRO AREA AROUND
8 AM WITH THE WINDS PEAKING MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WINDS
WITH THE STRONG 850 MB WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO NEAR 2000 FEET WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
CASCADES FOR SATURDAY AS WELL FOR THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW.
WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE KOLM-KBLI GRADIENTS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4 MB
BY 12Z SUN SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF SOME DRY WEATHER FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. FELTON

.LONG RANGE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND GENERALLY VFR
INLAND...BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS PCPN CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INLAND. BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WINTER FOR MOST OF THE AIRPORTS. MCDONNAL

&&

.WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1. HIGH WIND WARNING ALL AREAS EXCEPT CASCADES.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES.
3. FLOOD WATCHES OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MASON...THURSTON...AND
GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES
4. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING COAST.
5. STORM WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
6. GALE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET...PUGET SOUND A
HOOD CANAL.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
726 PM PST FRI FEB 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 N OCEAN SHORES        46.98N 124.16W
02/03/2006  40 MPH           GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND SE 40G60 AT 720 PM.

&&

DF