High Wind and Strong Wind in Washington, December 11 to 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON DEC 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REACH THE NORTH COAST
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND MOVE NE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. THIS EVENING.
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SPREAD TO THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS OF WESTERN WA BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT MOST OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE VERY WINDY BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST BY MIDDAY AND OVER THE
INTERIOR OF NW WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF WINDY
WEATHER AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 980MB LOW PASSED BETWEEN BUOY 2 AND 5...CROSSING
130W AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
FORKS/CARMANAH. THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. I DONT SEE ANY FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...SO THE LOW IS NOT LIKELY TO CURVE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. MY EYEBALLS PUT IT INTO DESTRUCTION ISLAND MIDDAY...THEN
HOPPING OVER TO SMITH ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS
COASTAL WATERS OUGHT TO REACH STORM FORCE LATER THIS MORNING...AND
PT WILSON AND SMITH ISLAND WILL BE AT STORM FORCE 50KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. I THINK THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE A VERY GOOD SHOT AT
VERIFYING AND I WOULDNT CHANGE THE FCST...NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MM5GFS SHOWS THE WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BACK TO AROUND A WSW FULL GALE BY
MIDNIGHT...SO THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR BRINGING UP THE HIGH SURF TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT STRONG FRONT REACHES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DEEP LOW WITH THAT TRACKS TO THE CHARLOTTES...SO
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET BY WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WRN WA WITH
THAT ONE. MM

.LONG TERM...12Z GFS TAKES A 974MB LOW THRU SRN VRISL 12Z
FRIDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY ACROSS WRN WA FRIDAY
MORNING...SETTLING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY
TO SAY THAT FOR SURE AND TIMING COULD EASILY BE OFF 12 HRS. MM

&&

.AVIATION...POWERFUL LOW CENTER STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
NORTHWEST TIP OF WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM RAIN AND MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS...WIND WILL BE THE BIG AVIATION ISSUE TODAY.
LOOKING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER SEA-TAC
TODAY. WINDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE WILL PEAK AROUND 75-80 KTS FROM
18Z-22Z...AND WINDS IN THE 010-020 RANGE WILL PEAK AROUND 50-60 KTS
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SFC WINDS AND EFFECTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES FURTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  PRANGE

.MARINE...MULTIPLIED ENPWAVE GUIDANCE BY 1.25 TO GET SWELL FORECAST
FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS CONSIDERING THE GFS HARDLY ACKNOWLEDGES THE
STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING LOW CENTER. THIS PRODUCES SWELL OF 23-26 FT
ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL FLOODING NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN SINCE WE ARE
AT THE TIME OF MONTH WITH NEAP TIDES...BUT BEACH GOERS BEWARE. BUOY
40006 HAD 28-FOOT SEAS AT 4 AM. ENPWAVE GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREDIBLE
SWELL NEAR 40 FEET ON FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH A FACTOR OF 0.8 FOR
NOW IN AN EFFORT TO BE CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.      HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    ...STORM WARNING COAST...AT THE ENTRANCES...NORTHERN INLAND
        WATERS AND ADMIRALTY INLET...
    ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND...
    ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY COAST...
    ...HIGH WIND WARNING COAST...STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET AND NW
       INTERIOR TODAY.
    ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINING LOW LAND ZONES.
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OLYMPICS.
    ...FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY THIS EVENING UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.