A strong cold front, combined with abundant moisture, triggered heavy rainfall across western Virginia during the 16th. One to as much as 4 inches of rain fell, with runoff causing minor flooding along portions of the James, Roanoke and Dan rivers.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A strong cold front, combined with abundant moisture, triggered heavy rainfall across western Virginia during the 16th. One to as much as 4 inches of rain fell, with runoff causing minor flooding along portions of the James, Roanoke and Dan rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 3:45 AM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 345 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NE INTO WRN PA AT THIS TIME AND WE WILL HAVE WEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALL DAY. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC...AND SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS WILL PROBABLY KEEP CLOUDS ALL DAY. IN ADDITION...RADARS WEST OF THE MTNS SHOW LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS...AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...SO I KEPT THE CHANCE POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ON WESTERN SLOPES AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SNOW...AND TNB IS REPORTING SNOW...SO I DO HAVE SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 300 FEET THIS MORNING. SHOULD LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. I STAYED CLOSE TO MAV MOS HIGHS WHICH LOOKED GOOD. SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US LIGHT WINDS. IF WE CAN MANAGE TO LOSE THE CLOUDS IN THE MTNS...WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. I WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...AND LOOKS TO JUST BRING US SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONALLY COOL SATURDAY...AND I STAYED CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO I RAISED POPS TO LOW CHANCE- MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES. BY LATE AFTERNOON...HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD BE CHANGING OVER TO SOME SNOW BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES...SO I INCLUDED SOME IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3550 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE ALREADY HAD CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH I ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO...BUT I DID SPEED UP THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...GRADUALLY LOWERING THE ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW. MOST AREAS ABOVE 2000 FEET WOULD BE SEEING ALL SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING IF THE PRECIP IS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...FOR THAT TO HAPPEN...THE ENERGY WOULD HAVE TO DIG DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST SIDE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 304 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>045-171145- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY- GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT- ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA- CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS- MONROE-GREENBRIER- 304 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Dan River. In Danville, the river crested about half a foot(17.46), above flood stage during the morning of the 17th, falling below the flood stage of 17 feet, early in the afternoon on the 17th.
Minor flooding occurred along the Dan River in South Boston. The river at South Boston rose above the flood stage of 19 feet during the morning of the 17th, crested at 23.43 feet during the morning of the 18th, and fell below flood stage early in the evening of the 18th.
Minor flooding occurred along the Roanoke river at Randolph. The river rose above the flood stage of 21 feet during the afternoon of the 17th, cresting at 21.5 feet at midnight on the 18th, and falling below flood stage late in the morning on the 18th.
Minor flooding occurred along the James River at Bremo Bluff. The river rose above the flood stage of 19 feet on the afternoon of the 17th, crested at 21 feet at midnight on the 18th, and fell below flood stage before noon on the 18th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2006Every state in 2006This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, November 2006
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5333, 5334, 5336, 5335.