High Wind in Virginia, November 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
219 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS OCCLUDED LOW SPINS
OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DESCENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE COAST AND INCOMING RIDGE ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEY TO HAVE WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE AREA...NORTHERLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG HIGHER RIDGES WHILE
VALLEYS DECOUPLE. LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMIZING THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST THIS EVENING AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NW NC AND SW
VA MOUNTAINS.

RADAR SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS
DRIER SLOWLY GETS WRAPPED IN FROM THE NW PER VISIBLE PICS. EXPECT AS
LOW CENTER PASSES WELL EAST OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WILL SEE MAJORITY
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN END THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SINCE STILL HAVE
CONVEYOR BELT TO WRAP AROUND SYSTEM FROM THE NE PLAN TO KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS OUT EAST EARLY. MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO KEEP
UPSLOPE PRECIP TO A MIN AND OTHER THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR SPORADIC
-RA/-SN SHOWERS APPEARS 20/30 POPS AT MOST WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT.
S/W RIDGING QUICKLY PUSHES EAST BEHIND EXITING LOW ON MONDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT MAKING FOR MORE SUN BY AFTERNOON.
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL RH COMBO WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS EASTERN HALF BUT MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
NOT A LOT OF DIURNAL TEMP SWING TONIGHT GIVEN MIXING/CLOUDS SO
OVERALL 30S WEST TO 40S OUT EAST. EXITING 85H COLD POCKET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD REBOUND IN HIGHS MONDAY..WITH 60S EAST PENDING
CLEARING AND 50S/NEAR 60 WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP CREATING
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH INCOMING RIDGING ALOFT...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL BE VERY LOW.

COULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP RIDGES RATHER MILD...WHILE VALLEYS REMAIN COOL. WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE LOW DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GUIDING THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA/NORTH CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. BY
WEDNESDAY...THESE TWO FEATURE WILL PHASE TOGETHER WITH THE WHOLE
SYSTEM BECOMING MATURE IN THE MID WEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME OCCLUDED AND QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARM AIR
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH GULF
CONNECTION AND GOOD JET DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

I DID POPULATE WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED. I ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES...MAINLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NO STRONG COLD CANADA AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH I WARMED TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...

TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SE COMBO WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WESTERN SLOPES WILL
KEEP RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR/MVFR SE WVA SITES TO VFR/OCNL
ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. SPOTTY -RA MAY OCCUR AT LYH/DAN WITH
SPORADIC -RA/-SN BLF BUT OVERALL EXPECTING ONLY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY. HOWEVER GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.
SYSTEM EXITS THE COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE
ESPCLY EAST WHILE EXPECTING LOWER CEILINGS TO FILL BACK IN SE WVA
WHERE MVFR/IFR LIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY BREAK ON MONDAY ALTHO LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES EARLY
WITH WITH LOW LEVEL RH HANGING ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

JH/RCS/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-131145-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
213 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.