Flash Flood in Virginia, June 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN THRU THE PERIOD IS THAT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL/FLOODING
POTENTIAL. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A RATHER FAMILIAR PATTERN OF
LATE...WITH UPR LOW STUCK ACRS IA/IL AND STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE IN PLACE...HELPING PIN NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. ALL THE WHILE...IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE THRU THE REGION...WITH
WEAK LOW ALSO ATTEMPTING TO GET ORGANIZED EAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT THRU THE AREA. A NEW INTRODUCTION TO THE SCENARIO IS THAT OF
INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT AS UPR TROF TRIES TO SHIFT EAST...WITH A
GENERAL 30-35KTS OF DEEP SHEAR NOTED FROM 12Z SOUNDING (ALONG WITH
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.7 INCHES). GIVEN PLENTIFUL BACKED FLOW ACRS THE
REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND TURNING HODOGRAPHS
ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT TO POTENTIAL ISOLD SEVERE...AND AN
ISOLD TORNADO EVEN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN VERY LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WOULD BE FROM TOMORROW MORNING THRU THE EARLY AFTN AS WEAK
LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND FURTHER BACKS THE FLOW.
THIS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO POTENTIALL SEE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP. ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE IF TROPICAL SYSTEM TRIES TO GET GOING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEFORE COMING INLAND ACRS NC. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED COULD BE EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF AND HELP
LIMIT ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SHEAR AXIS
APPROACHING TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE AREA TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THAT ALL SAID...WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TOMORROW EVENING...AND GIVEN VERY BAD
FLOODING REPORTS COMING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND JUST SOUTH
ALONG WITH RECORDED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE IN THE DAY AS UPR SYSTEM TO
THE WEST FINALLY KICKS EAST SUFFICIENTLY TO BOOT SFC SYSTEM NORTH.
THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT TO WESTERLY DOWN
LOW...FURTHER SCOURING OUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LATEST
GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM JUST A BIT AS IT DOES NOT ALLOW THE UPR
SUPPORT TO PICK THE SYSTEM UP AS QUICKLY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF SYSTEM INDEED DOES SLOW DOWN JUST A BIT.

TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY AS TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL HOLD LOWS UP
TONIGHT...WITH SOME RECOVERY POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH BREAKS
DEVELOPING (ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS TODAY WITH SFC SYSTEM
AND MORE CLDS APPROACHING).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS AMONG THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS IN SHOWING BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP ACRS THE PIEDMONT WITH
UPR TROF SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THRU THE WEEKEND. GIVEN COOLING
ALOFT AND POSITION OF UPR TROUGH/FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT POPS ANY
DAY WITH GOOD HEATING LIKELY EACH AFTN UNDER LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY
SUN. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO SHOW MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR AT
TIMES TO OCNL MVFR OR IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND A SHEAR AXIS TO THE WEST COINCIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO WED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-
     058-059 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ001>006-018>020 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ042>045 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-271200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
317 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 5 INCHES.

THIS AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COUPLED WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON
AREA CREEKS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT. MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL AS ANY
OBSERVED FLOODING.

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGWOOD              37.55N 79.75W
06/26/2006                   BOTETOURT          VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER ROUTE 43 AND SEVERAL MUDSLIDES IN THE
            AREA.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1122 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     FLOOD            5 E CLIFTON FORGE CITY  37.82N 79.73W
06/26/2006                   ALLEGHANY          VA   PUBLIC

            WATER FROM COWPASTURE RIVER FLOWING ACROSS ROUTE 634 NEAR
            THE TOWN OF SHANNON. 5.34 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT THIS
            LOCATION SINCE 330 PM SUNDAY.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
217 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HILLSVILLE              36.77N 80.73W
06/26/2006                   CARROLL            VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SMALL BRIDGES WASHED OUT ON WATERTOWN ROAD NEAR
            HILLSVILLE AND HUFFHILL ROAD NEAR DUGSPUR.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
421 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MARTINSVILLE AIRPORT    36.63N 80.02W
06/26/2006                   HENRY              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST SOUTH OF
            MARTINSVILLE CITY.

&&

LAWRENCE