Flash Flood in North Carolina, June 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CAN BE
SEEN AT 250MB AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STANDS OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT.

ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR WHICH WRAPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN FL. BY 18 UTC THE WRF HAS RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWFA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR THOUGH NOT QUITE AS DRY. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH HEATING WE EXPERIENCE. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CUT
DOWN ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWFA. MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO TAKE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE
CAT FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT THE NEIGHBORS DO.

BY THIS EVENING THE PWS CLIMB ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COUPLE WEAK BUT
VERY WET SHORT WAVES THAT LIFT OUT OF THE GULF. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK OUT OF THE SE...AND FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL ZONES.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY A HYBRID
TROPICAL/SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN LOW THAT BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST.
IF A CORE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THIS LOW...IT COULD CUT OFF
SOME INFLOW.

REGARDLESS...CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING CERTAINLY WARRANT
KEEPING UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT AND WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
HOW MUCH DRYING THERE IS ALOFT...AND THE MODEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NEAR TERM CONCERNS FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PACKAGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WILL BE A MIX OF LOW CIGS/VSBY AND SHOWER CVRG. WIDESPREAD
UPSLOPE TROPICAL SHOWER THREAT...OCNLY LWRING VSBYS TO MVFR...WILL
EXIST FOR THE FIRST SVRL HOURS FOR KGSP/KAND/KAVL UNTIL SOME MEAN
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SPREADS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AND MAINLY MVFR BR...THANKS TO RICH BLYR RH AND ESELY
FLOW...IS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...
BEFORE THE EXPECTED GRADUAL MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BY MIDDAY. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH JUST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TSTM CVRG THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY EXPECT LATER PACKAGES WOULD NEED AT LEAST AN INCREASE TO
TEMPO PROBABILITY FOR TSRA...IF NOT CATEGORICAL PROBS. RAMP CIGS
BACK DOWNWARD INTO MVFR RANGE AND CONTINUE WITH A VCSH MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SSELY TROPICAL
AIRMASS IS LIKELY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-501>510
     UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
606 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
OF THESE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE PURPOSE
OF REPORTING STREAM LEVELS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

NCZ503>506-261015-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
458 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.NOW...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WILL BE SPREADING
NORTH INTO BURKE AND CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES AND RESULT IN RISES ON
AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PLEASE BE WARY OF THE DANGERS OF FLOOD WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

NCZ063>065-261100-
HENDERSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
552 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WILL BE SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
PORTIONS OF HENDERSON...TRANSYLVANIA...AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AND CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR STREAM LEVELS THIS MORNING AND MOTORISTS
ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE LOOKING FOR WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CSH