Hail in Texas, May 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20/I-30 SHORTLY...

.UPDATE...
SPC IS PLANNING FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY
FOR AREA OF SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND SOME NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  WHEN THE BOX IS ISSUED WE WILL
REGENERATE THE ZONES AND RESEND.  THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
1000 PM BUT SHOULD BE BEFORE 1100 PM.  75

&&

.UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN CURRENTLY WRITTEN INTO
ZONES...THEN HAVE REHASHED THE GRIDS FOR A MORE REPRESENTATIVE WIND
FIELD THIS EVENING.  ALSO ADDED SOME POPS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND BIG COUNTRY ARE HEADED. WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS HAVE REMOVED
EVENING POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND DOWN SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. NEW ZONE READY TO
SEND OUT.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
535 PM.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NOT AFFECTING THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AS OF 22Z...WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION TSRA IN THE METROPLEX
TAFS AFTER 04Z...AND AFTER 08Z IN THE WACO TAF.  #58

&&

.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
A COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST DYNAMICS...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
WITH STORMS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN
THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK WILL WARRANT ONLY 10
PERCENT POPS.

GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  79  54  76 /  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              68  82  54  76 /  30  50  30  10
PARIS, TX             61  77  52  74 /  40  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            61  78  52  77 /  30  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  80  50  76 /  40  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            65  78  54  76 /  40  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           62  79  55  74 /  40  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  78  53  74 /  40  50  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            67  81  56  77 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-142045-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
EXISTING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD. STORM
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER 9 PM FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

TXZ094-140445-
FANNIN-
1118 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...DODD
CITY...HONEY GROVE AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

TXZ095-140515-
LAMAR-
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HONEY GROVE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PETTY.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

DUNN