Flash Flooding in Texas, June 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1040 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SKY COVER
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM
EPISODES(PRIMARILY THE NORTHEAST CWA) STILL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY WITH RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING ROBUST
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF PORT OCONNOR.

&&

.MARINE...MAINTAINED SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INFLOW FEEDS ORGANIZING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z TUE.  BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z TUE...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN ONE-HALF OF THE AREA AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DUE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVING WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR HOUSTON).  IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WL ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA
DURING TUESDAY MORNING.  VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN INTO TUE AFTN AND EVE ACROSS SOUTH TX SINCE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WL BE TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...AND VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

BB/85...SHORT-TERM
MB/80...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
705 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-201100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
705 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE COASTAL BEND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND WHERE TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. 24 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THESE AREAS ENDING TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WITH LESS
THAN 1 INCH OVER THE COASTAL AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL THOUGH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/4
INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL
BEND...TO AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER
INLAND AREAS. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TE/MG/BB