Flash Flood in Texas, June 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG
COUNTIES...AS SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY. GENERAL MOTION OF
THE CONVECTION IS A SLOW DRIFT SE WITH FORMATION SW. FLS ISSUED FOR
ZAPATA AND NRN JIM HOGG WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES RECEIVED DURING THE PAST
3H. MAY NEED TO POST FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JIM HOGG IF TSTMS TRAIN
DURING THE NEXT HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
&&

.SHORT TERM...MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CHURN TO THE
WEST...WITH THE CENTER JUST NORTH OF CRP. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING AREAL COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE
EXPECTED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA AND ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. THE BEST FOCUS STILL LOOKS TO BE TOMORROW WHEN THE
LOW IS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER TOMORROW WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT DRIFTS WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND IS
TRENDING TOWARD PRECIPITATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THE COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE LAGUNA MADRE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS SOLUTION LOOKS SIMILAR TO PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD BE CONNECTED
TO SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH GFS GRID SCALE RESOLUTION IS UNLIKELY TO RESOLVE A SEA
BREEZE THE 20/12Z GFS SOLUTION IS SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 IS ALSO TRENDING
TO A COASTAL RAINFALL SOLUTION...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO AS THE UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS AS WINDS HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND THEN RETURN TO
THE UPPER 90S WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS BY FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY
SUNDAY KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS IN ANOTHER DRYING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 21/18Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  79  91  77 /  20  30  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  93  75  94  75 /  20  30  10  20  20
MCALLEN              77  96  77  96  76 /  20  30  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  97  78  97  77 /  50  30  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  80  89  78 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WARNING JIM HOGG/ZAPATA
THRU 8 PM. FLS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FOR ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG THRU
1030 PM CDT.
&&

58/65/VEGA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
425 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

TXZ248>257-211100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
425 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AND...TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR IN
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED FLASH FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PHILO