Flash Flood in Texas, July 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
309 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED WITH HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE OVER A FEW AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ALIGNING ON A NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST AXIS.
RESULTANT CIRCULATION INDUCING A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY
THERMAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST. OVERALL PATTERN WILL
SUSTAIN DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY REACHING 1.5 OVER
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES
FROM 700 TO 1300 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUS
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS CONTINUES AS WEAK STEERING FLOW
AND RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING BACK BUILDING CELLS. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS
TRIGGER/LIFTING MECHANISMS. FOR TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECT WEAK WAVES TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE GFS SHIFTS RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER
BY SUNDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THUS WARMER DRIER
AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING DECREASED CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS, LATEST GFS ALSO MOVES WEAK UPPER
WAVES ACROSS THE CWA NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING CONVECTION MAY NOT BE AS
DIMINISHED AS PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, LATER
OUTLOOKS WILL REQUIRE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...LOWERING TO
IFR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  69  90  70  92 /  50  50  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        88  63  86  64  91 /  40  40  30  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  66  89  67  92 /  50  50  40  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              90  64  89  66  92 /  50  50  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              64  45  65  47  67 /  50  50  50  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   89  65  88  67  91 /  50  50  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             80  59  80  60  82 /  50  50  40  40  30
DEMING                  90  65  89  67  91 /  50  50  40  40  30
LORDSBURG               90  65  90  67  90 /  50  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

05 ROGASH